GET DAILY SIGNALSiShares Latin America 40 ETF (ILF) Shows -5% Retracement in Volatile Trading
Key Takeaways
- ILF tracks the S&P Latin America 40 Index, a market-cap-weighted basket of roughly 40 large-cap equities concentrated in Brazil and Mexico.
- The portfolio is heavily weighted to financials (about 35%), materials (about 20%), and energy (about 13%), giving it a pronounced cyclical and commodity tilt.
- Over the trailing 30 days, the ETF swung from roughly $34 to a peak near $38 in early October before retracing toward $32.50, a net decline of about 5%.
- Over the trailing quarter, the fund has been range-bound and volatile, finishing slightly lower rather than sustaining a clear directional trend.
- Principal drivers include iron ore, copper, and oil prices, Brazilian monetary policy and currency moves, and earnings from large financial and materials holdings.
- For a closer look at valuation levels and forward signals, review ILF's Price Targets and Forecast on Tickeron's dedicated pages.
ILF ETF at a Glance
The iShares Latin America 40 ETF is a passively managed exchange-traded fund that seeks to track the price and yield performance of the S&P Latin America 40 Index. The underlying index consists of selected large-cap equities trading on exchanges in five Latin American countries, with Brazil and Mexico together representing the overwhelming majority of exposure and Chile, Peru, and Colombia contributing smaller weights.
The fund holds roughly 40 securities and carries a net expense ratio of 0.47%. Its largest positions are dominated by Brazilian financials and commodity producers, including Nu Holdings (NU), Vale (VALE), Itaú Unibanco (ITUB), and Petrobras (PBR), alongside Mexican names such as Grupo México and Grupo Financiero Banorte. Sector allocation is concentrated in financials, materials, and energy, with a smaller weighting in industrials and consumer staples. This structure makes ILF a direct bet on Latin American banks, commodity exporters, and the region's currency and interest-rate cycles. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the fund compares to others in the industry.
Thematic Drivers Behind the Exposure
ILF operates at the intersection of two powerful global themes: the commodity cycle and the monetary-policy trajectory of major Latin American economies. Materials producers such as Vale are sensitive to global demand for iron ore, much of which is tied to industrial activity and construction, while copper-focused Grupo México and oil exporter Petrobras respond to energy and metals markets. On the financial side, holdings like Nu Holdings, Itaú Unibanco, and Banco Bradesco are levered to domestic credit growth and the level of Brazilian interest rates.
The macroeconomic backdrop for the region has been shaped by elevated inflation, currency volatility, and shifting expectations for central-bank policy, particularly the Brazilian central bank's Selic benchmark rate. Commodity prices and the value of the Brazilian real and Mexican peso materially influence both the underlying earnings of index constituents and the fund's returns for U.S.-dollar investors. These dynamics create a structurally cyclical, higher-volatility profile relative to broader emerging-market and developed-market benchmarks. From what I see, monitoring these factors remains essential for positioning.
Recent Price Action and Positioning
Over the trailing 30 days, ILF has traded in a notably wide range. The fund climbed from about $34 in late September to a local peak near $38 in early October, only to retrace sharply toward $32.50 by late in the period, leaving a net decline of roughly 5%. The move was characterized more by sharp, multi-day swings than by a smooth, gradual trend, consistent with a fund whose fortunes are tied to commodity prices, currency fluctuations, and investor positioning in Brazilian equities.
The trailing three-month picture tells a similar story of choppiness without a decisive direction. From a starting level near $34 in late July, the fund touched a low around $33 in August, rallied through September and early October, and then gave back those gains. The net quarterly change is modestly negative, in the low single digits. Because roughly half of the portfolio is allocated to financials and another fifth to materials, the fund's near-term path has tracked swings in bank earnings, commodity markets, and regional risk appetite more than any single company-specific catalyst. I reviewed the technical setup with Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals to confirm the range-bound nature.
Looking Ahead to 2026
Several structural factors are likely to shape ILF through 2026. Commodity prices, particularly iron ore, copper, and oil, will remain central to the earnings power of the fund's largest materials and energy holdings, with Chinese industrial demand and global supply dynamics playing an important role. The path of Brazilian monetary policy and inflation will influence both domestic credit conditions for financial holdings and the valuation multiple investors are willing to pay for the broader market.
Currency trends in the Brazilian real and Mexican peso will also matter, because translation effects can amplify or mute returns for U.S.-dollar holders. Political and fiscal developments in Brazil, Mexico, and Chile, along with global risk appetite and capital flows into emerging markets, represent additional variables. Finally, competitive and regulatory dynamics in Latin American banking and energy could affect the outlook for top constituents. These themes, rather than any single event, are likely to define the fund's risk-reward profile in the months ahead.
AI Tools in My Research Process
When evaluating ETFs like ILF alongside peers, I find Tickeron's AI Screener particularly useful for quickly identifying patterns and signals across thousands of securities. It allows screening based on technical indicators, fundamentals, volatility metrics, and AI-generated insights without manual data sifting. This has become a regular part of my process for assessing regional and sector-focused funds in a systematic way.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
ILF in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026
ILF moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 43 of 48 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ILF as a result. In 66 of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ILF turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 39 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 89%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ILF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for ILF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 22 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +1.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ILF advanced for three days, in 294 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
ILF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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