J&J (JNJ, $164.62) vaccine supply halted, after mix-up at Emergent BioSolutions (EBS, $92.94) plant
A mix-up of ingredients of Johnson & Johnson’s ( J&J ) COVID-19 vaccine and Astra Zeneca’s at an Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) manufacturing plant in Maryland ruined 15 million doses of J&Js vaccine, leading to deliveries getting halted.
The mix-up occurred about two weeks ago, and all shipments from the plant have been halted by the Food and Drug Administration. The latter in probing into the matter.
Last July, Emergent BioSolutions signed a contract, for a deal worth $480 million over the first two years, to make vaccine components for J&J .
While currently distributed J&J vaccines are not affected, the plant is supposed to produce millions of the single-shot vaccines which are expected to help the U.S. scale up its COVID-19 vaccinations in coming weeks.
EBS has manufacturing deals with several other pharmaceutical companies for vaccines including Novavax , Vaxart Inc., and Humanigen.
EBS sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
EBS saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on May 18, 2023. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 19, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EBS as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
EBS moved below its 50-day moving average on May 12, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EBS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
EBS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 10, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for EBS entered a downward trend on May 24, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where EBS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 34 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EBS advanced for three days, in of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.346) is normal, around the industry mean (42.346). P/E Ratio (17.730) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.681). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.722). EBS has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.026). P/S Ratio (0.421) is also within normal values, averaging (55.313).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. EBS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. EBS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
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Industry description
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High and low price notable news
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a manufacturer of biopharmaceutical products
Industry PharmaceuticalsOther
EBS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, EBS has been loosely correlated with ELAN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 53% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if EBS jumps, then ELAN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To EBS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EBS | 100% | -4.00% | ||
| ELAN - EBS | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.30% | ||
| ANIP - EBS | 48% Loosely correlated | +0.83% | ||
| SUPN - EBS | 43% Loosely correlated | +0.45% | ||
| EVO - EBS | 43% Loosely correlated | -2.31% | ||
| DVAX - EBS | 41% Loosely correlated | -0.94% | ||
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