After losing nearly 40% of its value over the past 12 months, Chinese online retailer, JD.com, finally broke out of its losing trend after the company reported its fourth-quarter earnings. The company reported annual revenue growth of 22% to $19.6 billion (134.8 billion RMB) beating estimates by $210 million, according to its latest Q4 report.
Non-GAAP net income of JD for the quarter rose 67% to 749.9 million RMB ($109.1 million), or $0.07 per ADS, which beat the estimates by $0.12. However, on a GAAP basis, its net loss widened from 0.9 billion RMB a year ago to 4.8 billion RMB ($0.7 billion), or $0.40 per ADS.
Over the past year, investors have been really concerned about the company’s performance. Compared to Q4 2017, the results of Q4 2018 showed deceleration in JD's annual growth in GMV (gross merchandise volume), active customers, and revenue.
But JD expects a revenue rise of 18% to 22% in the first quarter, matching Wall Street expectations. Its non-GAAP earnings are also likely to improve 30%, and all these indicate that JD’s growth could be stabilizing.
Moving away from its core marketplace, JD has also been diversifying its business by offering its logistics services to other retailers like the Japanese e-commerce giant Rakuten (RKUNY) along with selling more ads across its marketplace. Therefore, revenue from these high-margin services saw a 50% annual in 2018 and accounted for ~10% of its revenue, up from 8% in 2017.
Other JD.com investments include the launching of Mini Programs on Tencent’s WeChat last year, and its ever-increasing ties with Walmart (WMT) in terms of delivery services.
JD is also intensifying its Prime-like "JD Plus" subscription program, which locks in customers with discounts, curated products, VIP customer service, and access to premium digital content from partners like iQiyi.
JD's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on February 27, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 176 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 176 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 60 cases where JD's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 28, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on JD as a result. In of 98 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
JD moved above its 50-day moving average on March 08, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for JD crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 13, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JD advanced for three days, in of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for JD moved out of overbought territory on March 14, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for JD turned negative on March 26, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JD declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
JD broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 11, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.338) is normal, around the industry mean (17.720). P/E Ratio (12.993) is within average values for comparable stocks, (71.108). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.294) is also within normal values, averaging (3.234). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.030) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.289) is also within normal values, averaging (4.178).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. JD’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. JD’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a provider of online shopping services
Industry InternetRetail