Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) Earnings Preview: What the Q3 2026 Report Could Reveal
Key Takeaways
- Johnson & Johnson reports its third-quarter (Q3) 2026 results on Tuesday, October 13, before the U.S. market opens.
- Wall Street expects revenue of roughly $25.4 billion, up about 5%–6% from $23.99 billion a year earlier.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS, or profit divided by shares outstanding) are seen near $2.90, versus $2.80 in Q3 2025.
- Full-year 2026 guidance was raised after Q2, with a sales midpoint of about $101 billion and adjusted EPS of $11.60–$11.75.
- Innovative Medicine remains the growth engine, while Stelara biosimilar competition is the key headwind investors are watching.
- The company has beaten consensus estimates in recent quarters, and its shares have risen more than 20% year to date.
Why This Report Sets the Tone
Johnson & Johnson’s quarterly update often kicks off the broader drug and biotech earnings season because the diversified healthcare company is usually among the first large-cap names to report. It runs two main segments: Innovative Medicine (pharmaceuticals) and MedTech (medical devices). The Q3 numbers will test whether newer oncology and immunology products can keep offsetting revenue lost to Stelara biosimilars that started entering the U.S. market in 2025. With management aiming for roughly $100 billion in annual sales for the first time, investors will be looking for signs that the growth plan is still on track and that margins remain stable. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how the stock compares to others in the industry.
Consensus Estimates for Q3
Analysts are looking for revenue of approximately $25.4 billion in the third quarter of 2026, which would represent an increase of roughly 5%–6% from the $23.99 billion reported in the same period last year. On an adjusted (non-GAAP) basis, the consensus points to EPS of about $2.90, compared with $2.80 in Q3 2025. Some consensus sources show a lower GAAP figure because of items such as amortization and restructuring charges.
The bar was raised in July when the company lifted its full-year 2026 outlook. Management now projects adjusted EPS of $11.60–$11.75 and sales growth that implies a midpoint near $101 billion, up from roughly $94 billion in 2025. In Q2 2026, Johnson & Johnson delivered adjusted EPS of $2.90 on revenue of $25.31 billion, both ahead of expectations, with Innovative Medicine sales rising 6.8% and MedTech up 3.6%. Attention will center on whether oncology drugs such as Darzalex and Carvykti, along with newer launches like Tremfya and Icotyde, can maintain that pace as Stelara erosion picks up.
Market Reaction and Sentiment
Sentiment ahead of the report is generally constructive but cautious. Johnson & Johnson shares have climbed more than 20% in 2026, and the analyst consensus carries a “Strong Buy” rating with an average 12-month price target near $288, according to market data aggregators. Several firms, including RBC Capital, have raised targets into the quarter on expectations that strong Innovative Medicine sales could push revenue modestly above consensus. The stock has pulled back from recent highs and is testing a technical support zone in the mid-$250s. Historical patterns suggest the shares often deliver a muted single-day reaction to results, given the company’s consistent record of beating estimates. Key risks include a larger-than-expected Stelara decline, softer MedTech volumes, and any cautious tone on full-year guidance.
What to Watch After the Report
Once the numbers are out, the clearest signal will be whether management reaffirms or adjusts its full-year 2026 outlook. The company has already raised guidance twice this year, so any further increase would strengthen confidence in the oncology and immunology pipeline.
Investors will also track the pace of Stelara erosion. Biosimilar competition has been a known pressure point, and the speed of the sales decline will show how much the rest of the portfolio needs to grow to offset it. Strong performance from Darzalex and Carvykti, together with new immunology launches such as Tremfya and Icotyde, will be central to that offset.
In MedTech, focus will turn to the staged U.S. rollout of the OTTAVA surgical robot after its FDA authorization. Early feedback on hospital adoption and procedure volumes could influence medium-term growth expectations for the segment. Commentary on margins, currency effects, and any updates to capital allocation plans—including the dividend and share repurchases—will also shape how the market interprets the quarter.
AI Tools in My Research Process
When preparing for earnings like this, I find Tickeron’s AI Screener especially useful for quickly scanning healthcare names and identifying relevant technical and fundamental setups ahead of the report. It helps surface ideas without spending hours on manual filtering, which is valuable during busy earnings weeks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
JNJ in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
JNJ moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 17 of 32 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 30, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on JNJ as a result. In 34 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for JNJ turned negative on September 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 20 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 43%.
The 10-day moving average for JNJ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JNJ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 40%.
The Aroon Indicator for JNJ entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where JNJ's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 43%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 30 of 50 cases where JNJ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +2.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JNJ advanced for three days, in 164 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
JNJ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 63, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 12 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.710) is normal, around the industry mean (19.199). P/E Ratio (31.549) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.852) is also within normal values, averaging (5.738). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.658) is also within normal values, averaging (4.033).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JNJ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
an investment holding company with interests in health care products
Industry PharmaceuticalsMajor
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