Despite registering a solid year-over-year increase in the fourth quarter, JP Morgan’s profit fell short of analysts’ expectations.
The bank's earnings per share of $1.98 was below the $2.20 per share average estimate of analysts surveyed by Refinitiv. This is the first time in 15 years that JP Morgan profit missed quarterly estimates - and the bank’s trading desks are apparently to blame. Producing $1.86 billion in revenue, the fixed-income trading segment fell short of the $2.2 billion estimate.
The company's total revenue increased +4 percent to $26.8 billion, but was slightly below analysts' $26.84 billion estimate.
Nevertheless, the bank raked in $7.1 billion in total profit – which is nearly +70% higher compared to the year ago period. It is also a fourth quarter record. The firm also experienced a +9% increase to $14.5 billion in net interest income on loan growth and rising interest rates. Its net interest margin of 2.54 percent was 3 basis points higher from the previous quarter, and matched analysts' expectations.
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where JPM declined for three days, in 155 of 263 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on JPM as a result. In 29 of 80 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 36%.
JPM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for JPM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for JPM entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where JPM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 21 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 54 cases where JPM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +1.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JPM advanced for three days, in 217 of 365 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
JPM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 22, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. JPM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 87 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: JPM's P/B Ratio (2.530) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.866). P/E Ratio (14.421) is within average values for comparable stocks, (14.888). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.562) is also within normal values, averaging (2.139). JPM has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.018) as compared to the industry average of (0.026). P/S Ratio (4.888) is also within normal values, averaging (3.867).
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a major bank
Industry MajorBanks