Junior Gold Miner ETF hits lower rail of channel and generates bullish signal
Gold started moving higher last September as investors sought some safety as global equity markets started falling. When stocks started rallying after Christmas, gold continued to rally and reached a price of just shy of $1,350 an ounce on February 20. The price of gold fell back down to the $1,280 area from the high through March 7 before rallying back up to $1,325. It pulled back again last week but it looks like it is ready to rally again.
The VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDXJ) is highly correlated to the price of gold and it also rallied in the fourth quarter and through the February 20 high. The highs from September, October, and September all connect to form the upper rail of an upwardly sloped channel. The lower rail is more of an estimate at this point because the only contact point is the low from November. If that estimated rail turns out to be accurate, the fund just hit the lower rail.
We see that the daily stochastic readings are in oversold territory and just made a bullish crossover on April 3. In addition to that potential bullish signal, the Tickeron AI Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on March 1. The signal showed a confidence level of 77% and past predictions have been accurate 88% of the time.
The signal from the prediction tool calls for a gain of at least 4% over the next month, but I think the fund rallies up to at least up to $33.50 and that would mean a gain of at least 8%.
GDXJ in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on May 15, 2025
GDXJ moved above its 50-day moving average on May 15, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 42 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 21, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GDXJ as a result. In of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GDXJ just turned positive on May 22, 2025. Looking at past instances where GDXJ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GDXJ advanced for three days, in of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 211 cases where GDXJ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GDXJ moved out of overbought territory on June 06, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
GDXJ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 02, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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