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Oct 29, 2019

Kellogg (K, $63.39) beats Q3 earnings and revenue estimates; but divestitures and currency headwinds affect performance

Kellogg reported its latest quarter results, which revealed better-than-expected adjusted earnings per share and revenue.

The breakfast cereal maker’s adjusted earnings came in at $1.03, ahead of the 91-cent FactSet consensus expectation. 

Sales fell - 2.8% year-over-year to $3.37 billion in the quarter, but still exceeded analysts’ estimate of $3.35 billion (based on FactSet poll).

The  decline in sales were largely due to the divestiture of the cookie, fruit snack, pie crust and ice cream cone businesses. Unfavorable foreign-currency translations also affected performance. However, organic sales rose more than +2%.

Within North America, Kellogg’s organic growth was bolstered by brands including Pringles potato chips, Cheez-It snacks, Rice Krispies Treats and Pop-Tarts.

Currency headwinds hurt net sales in Europe, Latin America, and Asia-Pacific-Mideast-Africa.

Kellogg expects its currency-neutral adjusted earnings per share  to decline by about -10%, vs. prior expectation of a reduction of -10% to -11% -  the modified outlook follows a lower expected tax rate and higher-than-expected other income.

The company projects full-year net sales growth of +1% to +2% from the year earlier.

 

Related Ticker: K

K in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on March 18, 2024

K moved above its 50-day moving average on March 18, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 51 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 18, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on K as a result. In of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for K just turned positive on March 19, 2024. Looking at past instances where K's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for K crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on March 21, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where K advanced for three days, in of 342 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for K moved out of overbought territory on April 01, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 8 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where K declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

K broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for K entered a downward trend on March 25, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.143) is normal, around the industry mean (8.242). P/E Ratio (25.360) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.839). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.020) is also within normal values, averaging (2.553). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.498) is also within normal values, averaging (28.641).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. K’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Kraft Heinz Company (The) (NASDAQ:KHC), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB), Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND).

Industry description

A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Food: Specialty/Candy Industry is 8.22B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 6.25K to 327.81B. NSRGY holds the highest valuation in this group at 327.81B. The lowest valued company is OGGFF at 6.25K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Food: Specialty/Candy Industry was 0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 2%, and the average quarterly price growth was 5%. SRKE experienced the highest price growth at 42%, while AJOY experienced the biggest fall at -47%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Food: Specialty/Candy Industry was -2%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -15% and the average quarterly volume growth was -9%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 50
P/E Growth Rating: 66
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 70
Profit Risk Rating: 77
Seasonality Score: 1 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a company, which engages in the production and distribution of cereals, cookies, crackers and frozen foods

Industry FoodSpecialtyCandy

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Food Major Diversified
Address
412 N. Wells Street
Phone
+1 269 961-2000
Employees
23000
Web
https://www.kellanova.com
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