Latin America ETFs look poised for rallies
Latin American markets really tumbled in the first half of November and that caused the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSE: EWZ) and the iShares Latin America 40 ETF (NYSE: ILF) to drop over 5% from November 4 through November 14. Both funds jumped sharply on the 15th and look poised to rally based on a number of different indicators.
First, let's look at the EWZ. We see that the fund has been trending higher since the end of August and a trend channel has formed during this time. The ETF just bounced off of the lower rail of the channel this past week before the bounce on Friday.
The daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory, but they performed a bullish crossover on Friday. The jump also caused the stock to move back above its 50-day moving average, which indicates a change from a downtrend to an uptrend. Accoriding to Tickeron's statistics, in 34 of 39 similar backtested cases where EWZ's price crossed above its 50-day moving average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 87%.
In addition to the move back above the 50-day, the 50-day just crossed back above its 200-day moving average earlier in November. This indicates a buy signal, due to the trend repositioning higher. In 3 of 3 cases where EWZ's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 90%.
Yet another indicator that is pointing to a rally is the Bollinger Bands. The fund fell below the lower Bollinger Band on November 13 and a price increase is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band. In 40 of 46 cases where EWZ's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 87%.
Turning our attention to the ILF, we see similar patterns and statistics. While the ILF includes stocks outside of Brazil, the fund is heavily populated with Brazilian companies. Like we saw with the EWZ, the ILF has been trending higher since late August and a trend channel has formed. The fund just bounced off the lower rail of the channel and the daily stochastic readings just made a bullish crossover.
The ILF also moved back above its 50-day moving average on November 15 and according to Tickeron's stats, in 42 of 46 cases where ILF's price crossed above its 50-day moving average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 90%.
The ILF also dropped below its lower Bollinger Band on November 13 and the stats for this fund show increases in the stock price in 36 of 40 cases. The odds of a continued uptrend are 90%.
Obviously there is some overlap between these two funds and they will move in tandem with one another a great deal of time, but they can and will de-couple from time to time. The EWZ has performed a little better over the past year than the ILF, but because the ILF is a little more diversified beyond Brazilian stocks, it tends to be a little less volatile at times.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
EWZ sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
EWZ saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on August 06, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on EWZ as a result. In of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for EWZ moved below the 200-day moving average on August 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EWZ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
EWZ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
EWZ moved above its 50-day moving average on July 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for EWZ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on July 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EWZ advanced for three days, in of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 219 cases where EWZ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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