Latin America ETFs look poised for rallies
Latin American markets really tumbled in the first half of November and that caused the iShares MSCI Brazil Capped ETF (NYSE: EWZ) and the iShares Latin America 40 ETF (NYSE: ILF) to drop over 5% from November 4 through November 14. Both funds jumped sharply on the 15th and look poised to rally based on a number of different indicators.
First, let's look at the EWZ. We see that the fund has been trending higher since the end of August and a trend channel has formed during this time. The ETF just bounced off of the lower rail of the channel this past week before the bounce on Friday.
The daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory, but they performed a bullish crossover on Friday. The jump also caused the stock to move back above its 50-day moving average, which indicates a change from a downtrend to an uptrend. Accoriding to Tickeron's statistics, in 34 of 39 similar backtested cases where EWZ's price crossed above its 50-day moving average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 87%.
In addition to the move back above the 50-day, the 50-day just crossed back above its 200-day moving average earlier in November. This indicates a buy signal, due to the trend repositioning higher. In 3 of 3 cases where EWZ's 50-day moving average crossed above its 200-day moving average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 90%.
Yet another indicator that is pointing to a rally is the Bollinger Bands. The fund fell below the lower Bollinger Band on November 13 and a price increase is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band. In 40 of 46 cases where EWZ's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 87%.
Turning our attention to the ILF, we see similar patterns and statistics. While the ILF includes stocks outside of Brazil, the fund is heavily populated with Brazilian companies. Like we saw with the EWZ, the ILF has been trending higher since late August and a trend channel has formed. The fund just bounced off the lower rail of the channel and the daily stochastic readings just made a bullish crossover.
The ILF also moved back above its 50-day moving average on November 15 and according to Tickeron's stats, in 42 of 46 cases where ILF's price crossed above its 50-day moving average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued uptrend are 90%.
The ILF also dropped below its lower Bollinger Band on November 13 and the stats for this fund show increases in the stock price in 36 of 40 cases. The odds of a continued uptrend are 90%.
Obviously there is some overlap between these two funds and they will move in tandem with one another a great deal of time, but they can and will de-couple from time to time. The EWZ has performed a little better over the past year than the ILF, but because the ILF is a little more diversified beyond Brazilian stocks, it tends to be a little less volatile at times.
EWZ in -1.94% downward trend, falling for three consecutive days on July 16, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where EWZ declined for three days, in of 269 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
EWZ moved below its 50-day moving average on July 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
EWZ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where EWZ's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 25 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EWZ as a result. In of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EWZ just turned positive on June 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where EWZ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EWZ advanced for three days, in of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 219 cases where EWZ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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