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published in Blogs
May 08, 2023

Lincoln National (LNC, $20.46) Earnings Forecast Indicates Potential Downtrend

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Lincoln National (LNC) is a well-known financial services company, providing a range of insurance and investment products in the United States. The company's stock (LNC, $20.46) has recently been in the spotlight, as it is predicted to decline by 4% to $19.64 or more within the next month, according to A.I.dvisor.

This prediction is based on the analysis of similar scenarios where the stock trended down during the month, and the odds of a downtrend continuation are estimated to be 87%. As a technical analyst, it is important to consider other indicators that can provide insight into the direction of the stock price.

One such indicator is the Aroon Indicator, which has recently entered a downward trend for LNC on April 04, 2023. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor has identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70, while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This pattern could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock, and traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

A.I.dvisor has looked at 134 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern, and in 109 of those cases, the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 81%, which is a significant indicator for traders to consider when making decisions about LNC.

In addition to technical indicators, it is important to consider the overall market and economic conditions when predicting the direction of a stock's price. However, the technical indicators discussed here provide valuable insights into the direction of LNC's stock price in the short term.

The combination of A.I.dvisor's prediction of a 4% decline in LNC's stock price within the next month, and the Aroon Indicator's recent entry into a downward trend with an 81% chance of a downward move, suggests that traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. However, it is important to keep in mind the overall market and economic conditions and to make decisions based on a comprehensive analysis of all available information.

Related Ticker: LNC

LNC in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on May 04, 2023

LNC may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 41 cases where LNC's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 17, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LNC as a result. In of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LNC just turned positive on May 17, 2023. Looking at past instances where LNC's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

LNC moved above its 50-day moving average on May 22, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for LNC crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 26, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LNC advanced for three days, in of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 71 cases where LNC's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LNC declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for LNC entered a downward trend on May 19, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.631) is normal, around the industry mean (1.327). P/E Ratio (11.173) is within average values for comparable stocks, (34.427). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (8.232). LNC has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.084) as compared to the industry average of (0.041). P/S Ratio (0.203) is also within normal values, averaging (1.999).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. LNC’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LNC’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 85, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are MetLife (NYSE:MET), Prudential Financial (NYSE:PRU), Lincoln National Corp (NYSE:LNC), Genworth Financial (NYSE:GNW).

Industry description

Life insurance companies mainly sell policies that pay a death benefit as a lump sum upon the death of the insured to their beneficiaries. Life insurance policies may be sold as term life, (which guarantees payment of a stated death benefit and expires at the end of a specified term) or permanent /typically whole life (which is more expensive but lasts a lifetime and carries a cash accumulation component). Life insurance firms may also sell long-term disability policies that help to replace the insured individual’s income if they become sick or disabled. Health insurance, on the other hand, helps pay for medical expenses. Anthem, Inc., MetLife, Inc. and Aflac Incorporated are some of the largest U.S. companies in this industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Life/Health Insurance Industry is 19.21B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 228.36K to 124.08B. CILJF holds the highest valuation in this group at 124.08B. The lowest valued company is GWGHQ at 228.36K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Life/Health Insurance Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 4%. UTGN experienced the highest price growth at 7%, while CIA experienced the biggest fall at -28%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Life/Health Insurance Industry was -24%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -18% and the average quarterly volume growth was 149%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 47
P/E Growth Rating: 48
Price Growth Rating: 57
SMR Rating: 90
Profit Risk Rating: 85
Seasonality Score: 14 (-100 ... +100)
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