Long Bond ETF gets bullish signal ahead of Fed meeting
Treasury prices have been trending higher and yields have been trending lower for the better part of eight months now. After the Fed meeting in December, the Open Market Committee raised the Fed Funds target rate, but the Fed has been more dovish in its commentary since then. This has led to a rally in treasuries that is one of the strongest in history.
While the Fed only directly controls the Fed Funds rate, its actions have an effect on the entire spectrum of treasury issues. The 30-year bonds have been rallying just as much as other maturities and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Nasdaq: TLT) has moved from the $110 area to a recent high of over $134. Over the last five months, a trend channel has formed on the TLT and the fund has moved toward the lower rail in recent weeks.
The small pullback was enough to move the daily overbought/oversold indicators out of overbought territory and it moved the daily stochastic readings in to oversold territory earlier this week. The indicators made a bullish crossover on July 16.
In addition to the potential bullish signal from the stochastic readings, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for the TLT on July 14. The signal showed a confidence level of 89% and it calls for a rally of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on the TLT have been successful 74% of the time.
TLT in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on June 24, 2025
The 10-day moving average for TLT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 24, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TLT's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 44 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 04, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TLT as a result. In of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TLT just turned positive on May 29, 2025. Looking at past instances where TLT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TLT moved above its 50-day moving average on June 17, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLT advanced for three days, in of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 160 cases where TLT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
TLT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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Category LongGovernment
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