Long Bond ETF gets bullish signal ahead of Fed meeting
Treasury prices have been trending higher and yields have been trending lower for the better part of eight months now. After the Fed meeting in December, the Open Market Committee raised the Fed Funds target rate, but the Fed has been more dovish in its commentary since then. This has led to a rally in treasuries that is one of the strongest in history.
While the Fed only directly controls the Fed Funds rate, its actions have an effect on the entire spectrum of treasury issues. The 30-year bonds have been rallying just as much as other maturities and the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (Nasdaq: TLT) has moved from the $110 area to a recent high of over $134. Over the last five months, a trend channel has formed on the TLT and the fund has moved toward the lower rail in recent weeks.
The small pullback was enough to move the daily overbought/oversold indicators out of overbought territory and it moved the daily stochastic readings in to oversold territory earlier this week. The indicators made a bullish crossover on July 16.
In addition to the potential bullish signal from the stochastic readings, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for the TLT on July 14. The signal showed a confidence level of 89% and it calls for a rally of at least 4% within the next month. Past predictions on the TLT have been successful 74% of the time.
TLT sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
TLT saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on March 04, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TLT moved out of overbought territory on March 02, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 23 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 23 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 03, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TLT as a result. In of 95 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TLT declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
TLT moved above its 50-day moving average on February 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TLT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 12, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TLT advanced for three days, in of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TLT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 178 cases where TLT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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General Information
Category LongGovernment
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