TRENDING KEYWORDS
Looking for a Cheap Retailer to Buy on the Upswing? Here's an Idea
Few industries were as devastated by the pandemic as major retailers, particularly those who rely on in-store experiences. The "big box" retailers were among those hit hard: think Macy's, JC Penney's, Nordstrom, and Kohl's.
But as the pandemic risk slowly but surely fades, many of these battered down retailers may present opportunities for investors to buy on the upswing. And compared to Nordstrom and Kohl's (see analysis below), Macy's is looking undervalued.
Macy's posted a better-than-expected holiday shopping season. Net sales declined -18.7%, but that was better than the -22.6% decline analysts expected. Anytime a company's actual earnings are better than expected, it is usually good news for the stock price.
Net income was also a positive surprise. Macy's earned $160 million in Q4, which widely surpassed the $14.3 million expected by the street. Macy's took big steps to cut costs and said in a statement that it will continue to keep costs at a minimum going forward. Another hint of good news: Macy's reported that the holiday shopping season brought in 7 million new customers, and many of them were younger than the existing customer base. That's good news for the future, particularly if Macy's can continue reinventing its business model to cater to online shoppers.
At the end of the day, Macy's still incurred a full-year loss of $3.9 billion, and retailers in that category face an challenging future. But compared to Kohl's and Nordstrom, Macy's is trading at roughly half the multiple -- meaning investors may have a short-term opportunity to capture a bit of upside on the economic rebound. Below, Tickeron's A.I.dvisor takes a closer look at Macy's, Kohl's, and Nordstrom, with investment insights and detailed fundamental analysis.
JWN vs KSS vs M: Comparison
Stock price -- JWN: $23.99, KSS: $48.44, M: $21.55
Brand notoriety: JWN, KSS and M are all notable
The three companies represent the Department Stores industry
Current volume relative to the 65-day Moving Average: JWN: 118%, KSS: 71%, M: 94%
Market capitalization -- JWN: $3.8B, KSS: $6.2B, M: $6.1B
JWN is valued at $3.8B, while KSS has a market capitalization of $6.2B, and M's market capitalization is $6.1B. The market cap for tickers in this @Department Stores ranges from $0 to $0. The average market capitalization across the @Department Stores industry is $4.1B.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
JWN’s FA Score shows that FA rating(s) are green while KSS’s FA Score has green FA rating(s), and M’s FA Score reflects green FA rating(s).
- JWN’s FA Score: , .
- KSS’s FA Score: , .
- M’s FA Score: , .
According to our system of comparison, JWN is a better buy in the long-term than KSS, which in turn is a better option than M.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
JWN’s TA Score shows that TA indicator(s) are bullish while KSS’s TA Score has bullish TA indicator(s), and M’s TA Score reflects bullish TA indicator(s).
- JWN’s TA Score: , .
- KSS’s TA Score: , .
- M’s TA Score: , .
According to our system of comparison, KSS is a better buy in the short-term than JWN and M.
Price Growth
JWN (@Department Stores) experienced а --0.79% price change this week, while KSS (@Department Stores) price change was --13.08%, and M (@Department Stores) price fluctuated --6.79% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Department Stores industry was --1.53%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was 0.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was 0.00%.
Reported Earning Dates
JWN is expected to report earnings on Aug 24, 2022.
KSS is expected to report earnings on Aug 23, 2022.
M is expected to report earnings on Aug 17, 2022.
Industries' Descriptions
@Department Stores (-1.5% weekly)
A department store sells a wide variety of consumer goods under different “departments,” including (but not necessarily limited to) apparel, household appliances, home furnishings, personal care products, cosmetics, consumer electronics. During healthy macroeconomic conditions, consumers typically won’t shy away from big-ticket purchases; but during a downturn, consumer spending might get limited to the most necessary/daily essentials. Several department stores purchase items on bulk from manufacturers for resale to consumers at a profit. Some of the largest department stores companies in the U.S. include Kohl's Corporation, Macy's Inc., and Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.
JWN vs KSS vs M: Fundamental Ratings
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
M's Valuation (18) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as KSS (22) in the Department Stores industry, and is in the same range as JWN (33) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that M's stock grew similarly to KSS’s and similarly to JWN’s over the last 12 months.
KSS's Profit vs Risk Rating (70) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as M (100) in the Department Stores industry, and is in the same range as JWN (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that KSS's stock grew similarly to M’s and similarly to JWN’s over the last 12 months.
M's SMR Rating (7) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as JWN (7) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry, and is in the same range as KSS (8) in the Department Stores industry. This means that M's stock grew similarly to JWN’s and similarly to KSS’s over the last 12 months.
M's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as JWN (62) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry, and is in the same range as KSS (80) in the Department Stores industry. This means that M's stock grew similarly to JWN’s and similarly to KSS’s over the last 12 months.
M's P/E Growth Rating (90) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as KSS (90) in the Department Stores industry, and is in the same range as JWN (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that M's stock grew similarly to KSS’s and similarly to JWN’s over the last 12 months.
M's Valuation (18) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as KSS (22) in the Department Stores industry, and is in the same range as JWN (33) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that M's stock grew similarly to KSS’s and similarly to JWN’s over the last 12 months.
KSS's Profit vs Risk Rating (70) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as M (100) in the Department Stores industry, and is in the same range as JWN (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that KSS's stock grew similarly to M’s and similarly to JWN’s over the last 12 months.
M's SMR Rating (7) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as JWN (7) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry, and is in the same range as KSS (8) in the Department Stores industry. This means that M's stock grew similarly to JWN’s and similarly to KSS’s over the last 12 months.
M's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as JWN (62) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry, and is in the same range as KSS (80) in the Department Stores industry. This means that M's stock grew similarly to JWN’s and similarly to KSS’s over the last 12 months.
M's P/E Growth Rating (90) in the Department Stores industry is in the same range as KSS (90) in the Department Stores industry, and is in the same range as JWN (100) in the Apparel Or Footwear Retail industry. This means that M's stock grew similarly to KSS’s and similarly to JWN’s over the last 12 months.
JWN in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on May 11, 2022
JWN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 37 cases where JWN's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Current price $24.00 crossed the support line at $19.57 and is trading between $29.37 resistance and $19.57 support lines. Throughout the month of 04/12/22 - 05/13/22, the price experienced a -15% Downtrend. During the week of 05/06/22 - 05/13/22, the stock fell -0.79%.
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where JWN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +10.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JWN advanced for three days, in 219 of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 21, 2022. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on JWN as a result. In 79 of 101 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 78%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for JWN turned negative on April 08, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 47 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
JWN moved below its 50-day Moving Average on May 05, 2022 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day Moving Average for JWN crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 09, 2022. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JWN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for JWN entered a downward trend on May 13, 2022. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 73%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.59.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 33 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: JWN's P/B Ratio (6.583) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.358). P/E Ratio (21.786) is within average values for comparable stocks, (121.652). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.316) is also within normal values, averaging (1.269). JWN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.008) as compared to the industry average of (0.031). P/S Ratio (0.264) is also within normal values, averaging (0.750).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JWN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. JWN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
KSS in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on May 05, 2022
KSS moved below its 50-day Moving Average on May 05, 2022 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 53 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Current price $48.45 crossed the resistance line at $49.45 and is trading between $49.45 resistance and $44.55 support lines. Throughout the month of 04/12/22 - 05/13/22, the price experienced a -20% Downtrend. During the week of 05/06/22 - 05/13/22, the stock fell -13%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 27, 2022. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KSS as a result. In 63 of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for KSS turned negative on April 21, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.
The 10-day Moving Average for KSS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 05, 2022. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KSS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for KSS entered a downward trend on May 04, 2022. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +3.84% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KSS advanced for three days, in 263 of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
KSS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 69%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.06.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. KSS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. KSS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 49 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.336) is normal, around the industry mean (2.358). P/E Ratio (7.663) is within average values for comparable stocks, (121.652). KSS's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.487) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.269). Dividend Yield (0.026) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.369) is also within normal values, averaging (0.750).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
M's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for M moved out of oversold territory on May 12, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 17 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 17 of the 17 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
Current price $21.54 crossed the support line at $22.47 and is trading between $22.47 support and $13.69 support lines. Throughout the month of 04/12/22 - 05/13/22, the price experienced a -13% Downtrend. During the week of 05/06/22 - 05/13/22, the stock fell -7%.
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where M advanced for three days, in 248 of 319 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
M may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 26, 2022. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on M as a result. In 76 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for M turned negative on April 26, 2022. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 40 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 78%.
M moved below its 50-day Moving Average on May 05, 2022 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day Moving Average for M crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 03, 2022. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The 50-day Moving Average for M moved below the 200-day moving average on May 13, 2022. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where M declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 53%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.36.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 7 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 18 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.695) is normal, around the industry mean (2.358). P/E Ratio (4.737) is within average values for comparable stocks, (121.652). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.269). Dividend Yield (0.021) settles around the average of (0.031) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.268) is also within normal values, averaging (0.750).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. M’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 90 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. M’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock worse than average.
Latest blogs by Edward Flores
Top Blogs
