Looking for a Cheap Retailer to Buy on the Upswing? Here's an Idea
Few industries were as devastated by the pandemic as major retailers, particularly those who rely on in-store experiences. The "big box" retailers were among those hit hard: think Macy's, JC Penney's, Nordstrom, and Kohl's.
But as the pandemic risk slowly but surely fades, many of these battered down retailers may present opportunities for investors to buy on the upswing. And compared to Nordstrom and Kohl's (see analysis below), Macy's is looking undervalued.
Macy's posted a better-than-expected holiday shopping season. Net sales declined -18.7%, but that was better than the -22.6% decline analysts expected. Anytime a company's actual earnings are better than expected, it is usually good news for the stock price.
Net income was also a positive surprise. Macy's earned $160 million in Q4, which widely surpassed the $14.3 million expected by the street. Macy's took big steps to cut costs and said in a statement that it will continue to keep costs at a minimum going forward. Another hint of good news: Macy's reported that the holiday shopping season brought in 7 million new customers, and many of them were younger than the existing customer base. That's good news for the future, particularly if Macy's can continue reinventing its business model to cater to online shoppers.
At the end of the day, Macy's still incurred a full-year loss of $3.9 billion, and retailers in that category face an challenging future. But compared to Kohl's and Nordstrom, Macy's is trading at roughly half the multiple -- meaning investors may have a short-term opportunity to capture a bit of upside on the economic rebound. Below, Tickeron's A.I.dvisor takes a closer look at Macy's, Kohl's, and Nordstrom, with investment insights and detailed fundamental analysis.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
M's Stochastic Oscillator remains in oversold zone for 9 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where M advanced for three days, in of 281 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 199 cases where M Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on M as a result. In of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for M turned negative on August 11, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
M moved below its 50-day moving average on August 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for M crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where M declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
M broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. M’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.229) is normal, around the industry mean (2.140). P/E Ratio (9.335) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.456). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.953) is also within normal values, averaging (2.444). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.273) is also within normal values, averaging (21.311).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. M’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
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General Information
an operator of department stores
Industry DepartmentStores
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