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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Feb 25, 2021

Looking for a Cheap Retailer to Buy on the Upswing? Here's an Idea

Few industries were as devastated by the pandemic as major retailers, particularly those who rely on in-store experiences. The "big box" retailers were among those hit hard: think Macy's, JC Penney's, Nordstrom, and Kohl's.

But as the pandemic risk slowly but surely fades, many of these battered down retailers may present opportunities for investors to buy on the upswing. And compared to Nordstrom and Kohl's (see analysis below), Macy's is looking undervalued.

Macy's posted a better-than-expected holiday shopping season. Net sales declined -18.7%, but that was better than the -22.6% decline analysts expected. Anytime a company's actual earnings are better than expected, it is usually good news for the stock price.   

Net income was also a positive surprise. Macy's earned $160 million in Q4, which widely surpassed the $14.3 million expected by the street. Macy's took big steps to cut costs and said in a statement that it will continue to keep costs at a minimum going forward. Another hint of good news: Macy's reported that the holiday shopping season brought in 7 million new customers, and many of them were younger than the existing customer base. That's good news for the future, particularly if Macy's can continue reinventing its business model to cater to online shoppers. 

At the end of the day, Macy's still incurred a full-year loss of $3.9 billion, and retailers in that category face an challenging future. But compared to Kohl's and Nordstrom, Macy's is trading at roughly half the multiple -- meaning investors may have a short-term opportunity to capture a bit of upside on the economic rebound. Below, Tickeron's A.I.dvisor takes a closer look at Macy's, Kohl's, and Nordstrom, with investment insights and detailed fundamental analysis. 

Related Ticker: M

M sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory

On July 08, 2024, the Stochastic Oscillator for M moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 57 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In of the 57 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

Following a +1 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where M advanced for three days, in of 302 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

M may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 182 cases where M Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on July 15, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on M as a result. In of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for M turned negative on July 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

M moved below its 50-day moving average on July 15, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for M crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 07, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where M declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 69%.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. M’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.113) is normal, around the industry mean (2.366). M's P/E Ratio (561.667) is considerably higher than the industry average of (54.705). M's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.106) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.774). Dividend Yield (0.040) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.198) is also within normal values, averaging (0.480).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. M’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Macy's (NYSE:M), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN), Kohls Corp (NYSE:KSS).

Industry description

A department store sells a wide variety of consumer goods under different “departments,” including (but not necessarily limited to) apparel, household appliances, home furnishings, personal care products, cosmetics, consumer electronics. During healthy macroeconomic conditions, consumers typically won’t shy away from big-ticket purchases; but during a downturn, consumer spending might get limited to the most necessary/daily essentials. Several department stores purchase items on bulk from manufacturers for resale to consumers at a profit. Some of the largest department stores companies in the U.S. include Kohl’s Corporation, Macy’s Inc., and Ollie’s Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Department Stores Industry is 3.66B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 208.1K to 12.34T. MHRTF holds the highest valuation in this group at 12.34T. The lowest valued company is BONT at 208.1K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Department Stores Industry was 0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -3%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2%. CBDBY experienced the highest price growth at 12%, while WLWHY experienced the biggest fall at -13%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Department Stores Industry was 180%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 204% and the average quarterly volume growth was 63%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 40
P/E Growth Rating: 62
Price Growth Rating: 51
SMR Rating: 80
Profit Risk Rating: 83
Seasonality Score: 6 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
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published General Information

General Information

an operator of department stores

Industry DepartmentStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Department Stores
Address
151 West 34th Street
Phone
+1 212 494-1621
Employees
85581
Web
https://www.macysinc.com
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