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Jan 10, 2019

Macy's (M, $31.72) Plummets the Most in 10 Years, After Company Cuts Earnings Outlook

Macy’s Inc. lowered its annual profit and sales projection, leading its stock price to fall the most in a decade.

Compared to a previous forecast of at least +2.3%, Macy’s comparable sales is now projected to grow about +2%. Earnings are expected to come in around $4 a share, below the prior projection of as much as $4.30.

According to the retail chain, the major factors behind the downward revisions include under-performance in categories such as women’s sportswear, fashion jewelry and cosmetics, along with challenges in fulfilling orders following a fire at its West Virginia distribution center. Although the holiday season began on a high note, there was a drag during the mid-December period, as indicated by Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette.

The news led to its shares dropping by as much as -18 percent on Thursday, marking the sharpest intraday decline since October 2008.

 

 

Related Ticker: M

M's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory

The RSI Indicator for M moved out of oversold territory on September 25, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for M just turned positive on September 14, 2023. Looking at past instances where M's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where M advanced for three days, in of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

M may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where M declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for M entered a downward trend on September 26, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.722) is normal, around the industry mean (2.204). P/E Ratio (4.115) is within average values for comparable stocks, (56.310). M's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (10.195) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.541). M has a moderately high Dividend Yield (0.059) as compared to the industry average of (0.030). P/S Ratio (0.127) is also within normal values, averaging (0.689).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. M’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. M’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Macy's (NYSE:M), Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN), Kohl's Corp (NYSE:KSS).

Industry description

A department store sells a wide variety of consumer goods under different “departments,” including (but not necessarily limited to) apparel, household appliances, home furnishings, personal care products, cosmetics, consumer electronics. During healthy macroeconomic conditions, consumers typically won’t shy away from big-ticket purchases; but during a downturn, consumer spending might get limited to the most necessary/daily essentials. Several department stores purchase items on bulk from manufacturers for resale to consumers at a profit. Some of the largest department stores companies in the U.S. include Kohl's Corporation, Macy's Inc., and Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Department Stores Industry is 4.46B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 208.1K to 12.34T. MHRTF holds the highest valuation in this group at 12.34T. The lowest valued company is BONT at 208.1K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Department Stores Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 2%. MAKSF experienced the highest price growth at 7%, while CBD experienced the biggest fall at -19%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Department Stores Industry was -3%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -60% and the average quarterly volume growth was -20%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 36
P/E Growth Rating: 61
Price Growth Rating: 61
SMR Rating: 59
Profit Risk Rating: 81
Seasonality Score: 2 (-100 ... +100)
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Technical Analysis# Of IndicatorsAvg. Odds
   
   
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

an operator of department stores

Industry DepartmentStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Department Stores
Address
151 West 34th Street
Phone
+1 212 494-1621
Employees
94570
Web
https://www.macysinc.com
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M and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, M has been closely correlated with KSS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if M jumps, then KSS could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
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Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To M
1D Price
Change %
M100%
-2.43%
KSS - M
76%
Closely correlated
-3.51%
JWN - M
69%
Closely correlated
-1.19%
DDS - M
58%
Loosely correlated
-1.66%
DDT - M
19%
Poorly correlated
-0.21%
CBD - M
16%
Poorly correlated
-7.83%
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