Macy's (M, $31.72) Plummets the Most in 10 Years, After Company Cuts Earnings Outlook
Macy’s Inc. lowered its annual profit and sales projection, leading its stock price to fall the most in a decade.
Compared to a previous forecast of at least +2.3%, Macy’s comparable sales is now projected to grow about +2%. Earnings are expected to come in around $4 a share, below the prior projection of as much as $4.30.
According to the retail chain, the major factors behind the downward revisions include under-performance in categories such as women’s sportswear, fashion jewelry and cosmetics, along with challenges in fulfilling orders following a fire at its West Virginia distribution center. Although the holiday season began on a high note, there was a drag during the mid-December period, as indicated by Macy’s CEO Jeff Gennette.
The news led to its shares dropping by as much as -18 percent on Thursday, marking the sharpest intraday decline since October 2008.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
M in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on September 09, 2026
M may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 27 of 35 cases where M's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where M's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for M just turned positive on September 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where M's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 37 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
Following a +2.78% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where M advanced for three days, in 208 of 279 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 51 of 64 cases where M's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on M as a result. In 69 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
M moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where M declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Aroon Indicator for M entered a downward trend on September 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. M’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.220) is normal, around the industry mean (2.246). P/E Ratio (8.429) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.619). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.624) is also within normal values, averaging (1.329). Dividend Yield (0.033) settles around the average of (0.020) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.262) is also within normal values, averaging (19.276).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. M’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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an operator of department stores
Industry DepartmentStores
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