Market Volatility as Coronavirus Spreads
For weeks, the equity markets seemed to shrug-off the possibility of negative impact from a spreading coronavirus. But the tone changed this week, as the S&P 500 posted sharp declines early in the week as confirmed cases grew sharply across the world – particularly in developed economies like South Korea, Japan, Italy, and even here in the US.
While equities sold off sharply, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury fell to a record low and oil prices dropped below $50 a barrel – all signs of growing investor concern over demand and economic growth in the coming months and quarters.
In my view, volatility is likely to persist as investor attention is decisively shifted away from fundamentals (revenues and earnings) and towards the unknown (headlines). In short, however, I also think the fear of the coronavirus as a global pandemic is arguably greater, for now, than the actual economic impact it is likely to have. While I don't mean to downplay the seriousness of the outbreak, history suggests that the impact to growth and market performance – and the grip that the outbreak holds on global psychology and confidence – will be temporary. I'll be buying the dips when I can.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
URTH in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for URTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 14 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 07, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on URTH as a result. In 69 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for URTH just turned positive on October 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where URTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 45 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 88%.
Following a +1.06% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where URTH advanced for three days, in 291 of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
URTH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 48 of 66 cases where URTH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 73%.
URTH moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where URTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Aroon Indicator for URTH entered a downward trend on September 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
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