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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Sep 13, 2019

Match Group trending higher behind strong fundamentals

Online dating site operator Match Group (Nasdaq: MTCH) has been on an incredible run over the last four years. Match Group is the parent company of websites such as Tinder.com, Match.com, and OKCupid.com.

As late as April 2016, the stock was trading under $10 a share before rallying as high as $95 last month. The rally accelerated in the last 10 months and jumped from a low of $31.69 last November to the recent high of $95.32.

We will get to the chart in a minute, but one of the reasons the stock has been able to pull off such an impressive rally is the fundamental performance of the company. Match Group has been able to grow its earnings by 39% per year over the last three years and sales have grown by 23% during that same time period. Analysts expect earnings to grow by 18% for 2019 while sales are expected to grow by 19.4%.

In addition to the outstanding earnings and sales growth, the company’s management efficiency measurements are really good with a return on equity of 138.8% and a profit margin of 31.1%.

Adding these indicators together we see that the Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 4, indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17, and that indicates outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.

Turning our attention to the daily chart we see that the stock has been moving higher within a trend channel over the last 1o months. The upper rail connects the highs from February, May, and August while the lower rail connects the lows from November, August, and the current level.

The daily stochastic readings reached their lowest level of the past year before turning higher and making a bullish crossover on September 12. The 10-day RSI reached oversold territory for only the second time in the last year.

The Tickeron Technical Analysis overview shows several bullish indications. First, the Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 3, and that indicates outstanding price growth. Match Group’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 points to highest price growth (largest percent return) while a rating of 100 points to lowest price growth (smallest percent return).

The lower Bollinger Band was broken on September 9 and suggests a price increase is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band. In 14 of 20 cases where Match Group's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 70%.

Despite the fundamental performance and the incredible price gains, the sentiment toward Match Group is decidedly bearish. There are 19 analysts following the stock at this time. There are six “buy” ratings, 12 “hold” ratings, and one “sell” rating. This puts the buy percentage at 31.6% and that is well below average.

The short interest ratio is an incredible 15.95 with over 27 million shares sold short at this time. The ratio itself has bounced around quite a bit, but that has been due to changes in the average daily trading volume more so than the number of shares sold short. The short interest has been growing pretty consistently in the last few months and the current short interest level is the highest of the past year.

Related Ticker: MTCH

MTCH's MACD Histogram just turned positive

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTCH turned positive on May 31, 2024. Looking at past instances where MTCH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 04, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTCH as a result. In of 87 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

MTCH moved above its 50-day moving average on June 13, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for MTCH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 14, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTCH advanced for three days, in of 278 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 188 cases where MTCH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTCH moved out of overbought territory on June 07, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 28 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 56 cases where MTCH's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTCH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

MTCH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 06, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MTCH's P/B Ratio (103.093) is slightly higher than the industry average of (14.667). P/E Ratio (15.894) is within average values for comparable stocks, (48.306). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.455) is also within normal values, averaging (3.441). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.131) is also within normal values, averaging (110.644).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. MTCH’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTCH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), Spotify Technology SA (NYSE:SPOT), Baidu (NASDAQ:BIDU), Pinterest (NYSE:PINS), Tencent Music Entertainment Group (NYSE:TME), Snap (NYSE:SNAP), Twilio (NYSE:TWLO), Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z).

Industry description

Companies in this industry typically license software on a subscription basis and it is centrally hosted. Such products usually go by the names web-based software, on-demand software and hosted software. Cloud computing has emerged as a major force in this space, making it possible to save files to a remote database (without requiring them to be saved on local storage device); as long as a device has access to the web, it can access the data and the software programs to run it. This has in many cases facilitated cost efficiency, speed and security of data for businesses and consumers. Alphabet Inc., Facebook, Inc. and Yahoo! Inc. are some well-known names in the internet software/services industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Internet Software/Services Industry is 60.93B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.11K to 1.94T. GOOGL holds the highest valuation in this group at 1.94T. The lowest valued company is MSEZ at 1.11K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Internet Software/Services Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -0%, and the average quarterly price growth was 11%. ONFO experienced the highest price growth at 60%, while HRYU experienced the biggest fall at -40%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Internet Software/Services Industry was -14%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -28% and the average quarterly volume growth was -63%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 46
P/E Growth Rating: 73
Price Growth Rating: 58
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 91
Seasonality Score: 4 (-100 ... +100)
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MTCHDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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General Information

a provider of dating products

Industry InternetSoftwareServices

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Internet Software Or Services
Address
8750 North Central Expressway
Phone
+1 214 576-9352
Employees
2620
Web
https://www.mtch.com
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