Materials Select Sector SPDR (XLB) hits lower rail of channel
The materials sector has lagged most of the other sectors so far in 2019 and for the past year. The Materials Select Sector SPDR (NYSE: XLB) is up 13.23% so far in 2019, but that places it in seventh place among the 10 select sectors SPDR ETFs. The tech sector has experienced a gain of 27.2% so far this year and that is the top performance of the group.
Even though it has lagged so far this year, the XLB could be ready to make up some ground on the other sectors. The fund pulled back a little over the last few weeks, but that brought it down to the lower rail of an upwardly sloping trend channel. That lower rail is just above the 50-day moving average, giving the ETF two layers of support.
The daily stochastic readings for the XLB moved down close to oversold territory and appear to be turning higher now. The last time the indicators were this low was at the end of December when the fund jumped by over 10% within a matter of weeks. The stochastics did make a bullish crossover on April 29.
The Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal for the XLB on April 26 and that signal showed a confidence level of 87%. The signal calls for a gain of at least 4% over the coming month and 85% of previous predictions on the ETF have been successful.
XLB in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on August 12, 2025
XLB moved above its 50-day moving average on August 12, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 56 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The 10-day moving average for XLB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 20, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLB advanced for three days, in of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 287 cases where XLB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 64 cases where XLB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 12, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLB as a result. In of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLB turned negative on September 09, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLB broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 22, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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