Micron Technology (Nasdaq: MU) has been caught in a terrible downtrend over the past six months. The stock peaked around $65 in late May and then started trending lower. A trend channel has formed to define the different cycles within the overall trend and the stock just hit the upper rail of that channel earlier this week.
You can see on the chart how the upper rail is in close proximity to the 50-day moving average and that makes it even harder for the stock to break through the resistance. The overbought/oversold indicators were nearing overbought levels before turning lower on Tuesday.
Micron’s fundamentals are pretty good and that makes the downtrend somewhat perplexing. Earnings have grown by 143% per year over the last three years and they grew by 75% in the last quarterly report. Analysts are expecting earnings to decline by 16% for the year as a whole.
Sales have grown by an average of 32% per year over the last three years and they grew by 38% in the most recent quarter. The company sports a return on equity of 57.7% and a profit margin of 49.8%.
The company is set to announce earnings again on December 18. It could be a case where the stock needs an event like an earnings report to break above the resistance we see on the chart.
The 10-day moving average for MU crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 29, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on March 20, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MU as a result. In of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MU just turned positive on March 21, 2024. Looking at past instances where MU's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
MU moved above its 50-day moving average on February 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MU advanced for three days, in of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 244 cases where MU Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MU declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
MU broke above its upper Bollinger Band on March 21, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. MU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 61, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.010) is normal, around the industry mean (7.389). P/E Ratio (47.369) is within average values for comparable stocks, (128.609). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.113) is also within normal values, averaging (2.449). Dividend Yield (0.004) settles around the average of (0.021) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (7.153) is also within normal values, averaging (11.903).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a manufacturer of advanced semiconductor solutions such as DRAMs, NAND flash memory, CMOS image sensors, other semiconductor components and memory modules
Industry Semiconductors