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Dec 06, 2018
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Micron Technology Just Hit the Upper Rail of a Downward Sloped Trend Channel

Micron Technology Just Hit the Upper Rail of a Downward Sloped Trend Channel

Micron Technology (Nasdaq: MU) has been caught in a terrible downtrend over the past six months. The stock peaked around $65 in late May and then started trending lower. A trend channel has formed to define the different cycles within the overall trend and the stock just hit the upper rail of that channel earlier this week.

You can see on the chart how the upper rail is in close proximity to the 50-day moving average and that makes it even harder for the stock to break through the resistance. The overbought/oversold indicators were nearing overbought levels before turning lower on Tuesday.

Micron’s fundamentals are pretty good and that makes the downtrend somewhat perplexing. Earnings have grown by 143% per year over the last three years and they grew by 75% in the last quarterly report. Analysts are expecting earnings to decline by 16% for the year as a whole.

Sales have grown by an average of 32% per year over the last three years and they grew by 38% in the most recent quarter. The company sports a return on equity of 57.7% and a profit margin of 49.8%.

The company is set to announce earnings again on December 18. It could be a case where the stock needs an event like an earnings report to break above the resistance we see on the chart.

Related Ticker: MU

Contributor

Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.


MU in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026

MU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 30 of 32 cases where MU's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MU's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a +8.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MU advanced for three days, in 261 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MU as a result. In 67 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MU turned negative on October 30, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 37 of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 76%.

MU moved below its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for MU crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 17 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.

The Aroon Indicator for MU entered a downward trend on November 04, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MU’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 63 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.917) is normal, around the industry mean (5.869). P/E Ratio (17.739) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.161). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.154) is also within normal values, averaging (3.803). Dividend Yield (0.001) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (11.696) is also within normal values, averaging (46.468).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd (NYSE:TSM), Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ:AVGO), Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU), Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD), Intel Corp (NASDAQ:INTC), Texas Instruments (NASDAQ:TXN), Analog Devices (NASDAQ:ADI), QUALCOMM (NASDAQ:QCOM), Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL).

Industry description

The semiconductor industry manufacturers all chip-related products, including research and development. These chips are used in innumerable electronic devices, including computers, cell phones, smartphones, and GPSs. Intel Corporation, NVIDIA Corp., and Broadcomm are some of the prominent players in this industry. Semiconductor companies usually tend to do well during periods of healthy economic growth, thereby inducing further research and development in the industry – which in turn augurs well for productivity and growth in the economy. In the near future, demand for semiconductor products (and possibly innovation within the segment) should only expand further, with the proliferation of 5G, autonomous vehicles, IoT, and various AI-driven electronics set to herald a new, advanced chapter in the technology-driven world as we know it. With burgeoning prospects comes great competition. In 2015, SIA estimated that U.S. semiconductor industry ranks as the second most competitive U.S. industry out of 2882 U.S. industries designated manufacturers by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Semiconductors Industry is 196.58B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 86.8K to 4.83T. NVDA holds the highest valuation in this group at 4.83T. The lowest valued company is STRB at 86.8K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Semiconductors Industry was -21%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -34%, and the average quarterly price growth was -35%. NXPI experienced the highest price growth at 5%, while INTC experienced the biggest fall at -39%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Semiconductors Industry was 57%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 51% and the average quarterly volume growth was -51%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 55
P/E Growth Rating: 50
Price Growth Rating: 64
SMR Rating: 72
Profit Risk Rating: 77
Seasonality Score: 17 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of advanced semiconductor solutions such as DRAMs, NAND flash memory, CMOS image sensors, other semiconductor components and memory modules

Industry Semiconductors

Industry
Semiconductors
Address
8000 S. Federal Way
Phone
+1 208 368-4000
Employees
53000
Web
https://www.micron.com
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