Mixed Messages on Biotech Sector with Strong Fundamentals, but Overvalued Currently
The current health crisis has created a lot of buzz around the biotech sector as several companies from the sector are working on potential vaccines against the COVID-19 virus. That buzz has created somewhat of a mixed message for the sector as a whole. Many of the companies are overvalued at this time, but the fundamentals of many are really good.
I looked at the SPDR S&P Biotech ETF (NYSE: XBI) and its components. First, I looked at the chart of the ETF itself and saw the huge bounce off of the March low—moving from the $65 area to over $110 in approximately three months. As impressive as the move is, it is also troubling for someone like me that has a hard time buying stocks or ETFs when they are overbought.
After looking at the chart and the move the XBI has made, I started looking at the individual companies and their fundamental ratings along with the scorecard grades from Tickeron. What I found there was pretty impressive.
Of the 85 components in the XBI, 41 are rated as a “strong buy” and 17 are rated as a “buy”. There are seven “hold” ratings, eight “sell” ratings, and 10 “strong sell” ratings. There were also two that didn’t have a rating on the scorecard. I found it to be a really good sign for the long-term prospects of the sector with almost 70% of the ratings coming in at a buy or better. Keep in mind these ratings are strictly based on artificial intelligence, they aren’t the same thing as analysts’ ratings where human opinions are taken in to account.
The problem with the components is that so many are overvalued at this time. Of the 85 stocks in the fund, 45 are “overvalued”, 29 are “fairly valued”, and only 11 are “undervalued”.
The biotechnology industry involves genetic or protein engineering. The goal is to produce medicines or therapies for treating and preventing ailments. The industry also provides crucial ingredients for diagnostics. This multi-billion dollar industry is heavily focused on research and development. Companies are continuously attempting to come up with cutting-edge solutions for health. New discoveries for the treatment of diseases provide growth opportunities for the companies. However, discoveries must pass regulatory approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) before they can make it to markets.
Some of the most notable companies in the group are Amgen Inc. (NASDAQ:AMGN), Gilead Sciences, Inc. (NASDAQ:GILD), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:REGN), Illumina Inc (NASDAQ:ILMN), Biogen Inc (NASDAQ:BIIB), Alexion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (NASDAQ:ALXN), Moderna Inc (NASDAQ:MRNA), Incyte Corp. (NASDAQ:INCY), Exact Sciences Corp. (NASDAQ:EXAS), and Sarepta Therapeutics Inc (NASDAQ:SRPT).
Of those notable companies, only Amgen falls in to the undervalued category at this time. Exact Sciences is fairly valued and all the rest of those notable companies are in the overvalued category at this time.
What all of this suggest to me is that the long-term prospects for the XBI and the biotech sector as a whole are really good. But investors might want to wait for a pullback before jumping in.
One particular technical indicator that jumped out at me was the RSI indicator. Over the last three weeks or so, 36 of the stocks in the XBI have received a signal from this indicator and only four of those 36 were bullish signals with good odds of success. There was one bearish signal that didn’t have good odds of success, but there were 31 bearish signals where the odds of success were at 60% or better.
Given all of this information, I can see making a bullish trade on the biotech sector if the stocks as a whole see a little pullback. If enough of the stocks go through a little downturn, it should reduce the number of stocks that are overvalued. Such a move would give investors a chance to enter a trade without buying when the indicators are in overbought territory.
XBI sees MACD Histogram just turned negative
XBI saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on March 03, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 56 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 56 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on March 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XBI as a result. In of 97 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XBI moved below its 50-day moving average on March 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XBI crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on March 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XBI declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XBI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 64 cases where XBI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XBI advanced for three days, in of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 245 cases where XBI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
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General Information
Category Health
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