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published in Blogs
Oct 02, 2019

Mixed signals on Hess as it hits support and gets a bullish signal from Tickeron

Oil producer Hess Corp. (NYSE: HES) is hitting several different support points on its chart and it got a bullish signal from the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine on September 30. While these are positive signs for the short-term outlook, there are some other indicators that are possible concerns for the long term.

Let’s look at the chart first. We see on the daily chart that a trend channel has formed over the last four months and the stock just hit the lower rail of the channel earlier this week before bouncing a little.

The lower rail of the channel was right at the lower Bollinger Band when the stock hit it as well. If we look at the Bollinger Bands we see that the stock moved above the upper rail on September 16 and then pulled back rather abruptly. Now the stock is down at the lower band and actually dipped slightly below it on September 30.

Yet another possible positive sign for the stock is the fact that the daily stochastic readings are in oversold territory and made a bullish crossover on October 1. We saw similar moves at the beginning of June and the beginning of August and both times the stock rallied nicely in the month that followed.

As was mentioned previously, Tickeron’s Trend Prediction Engine generated a bullish signal for Hess on September 30. That signal showed a confidence level of 75% and it calls for a gain of at least 4% within the next month. Previous signals on the stock have been accurate 76% of the time.

While many of the technical indicators point to an upward move, the fundamental indicators are mixed. The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 17 and that points to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents. A rating of 1 indicates highest PE growth while a rating of 100 indicates lowest PE growth.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 30 indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization.

Both the PE Growth Rating and the Valuation Rating are better than the average stock, but unfortunately there are several other indicators where Hess is below average. The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92, indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. The SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) Rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for this company is 100, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. Hess’ unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating for the industry is 97, placing this stock worse than average.

Something that could help Hess move past the few negative indicators is the sentiment toward the stock. There are 26 analysts covering the stock at this time with 11 “buy” ratings, 13 “hold” ratings, and two “sell” ratings. This puts the buy percentage at 42.3% which is well below average and indicates less optimism.

The short interest ratio is at 3.9 at this time and that is above average. Like the analysts’ ratings, the higher short interest ratio also indicates less optimism on Hess than the average stock.

Related Ticker: HES

Momentum Indicator for HES turns positive, indicating new upward trend

HES saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on February 14, 2024. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 81 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

HES moved above its 50-day moving average on February 02, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for HES crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on February 05, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HES advanced for three days, in of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 305 cases where HES Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 66 cases where HES's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for HES turned negative on February 28, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HES declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HES’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.983) is normal, around the industry mean (4.686). P/E Ratio (32.461) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.404). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.419) is also within normal values, averaging (4.761). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.088) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.266) is also within normal values, averaging (141.891).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP), Canadian Natural Resources Limited (NYSE:CNQ), EOG Resources (NYSE:EOG), Pioneer Natural Resource Co (NYSE:PXD), Occidental Petroleum Corp (NYSE:OXY), Hess Corp (NYSE:HES), Diamondback Energy (NASDAQ:FANG), Devon Energy Corp (NYSE:DVN), EQT Corp (NYSE:EQT), Marathon Oil Corp (NYSE:MRO).

Industry description

The oil and gas production segment includes companies that specialize in exploration, development, and production of oil and natural gas. These companies are focused on upstream operations. Companies typically identify deposits, drill wells, and extract raw materials from underground. The industry also includes related services like rig operations, feasibility studies, machinery rentals etc. Several operators in this industry work with various types of contractors such as engineering procurement and construction contractors, as well as with joint-venture partners and oil field service companies. Oil and gas often involves large fixed costs of production; so, declining crude oil prices, for example, is a potential negative for this industry. Conoco Phillips, EOG Resources, Inc. and Pioneer Natural Resources Company are some examples of companies operating in this space.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Oil & Gas Production Industry is 3.83B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 3.28K to 132.39B. COP holds the highest valuation in this group at 132.39B. The lowest valued company is PSTRQ at 3.28K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Oil & Gas Production Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 1%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4%. UNRG experienced the highest price growth at 39%, while TTLHF experienced the biggest fall at -56%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Oil & Gas Production Industry was -17%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 32% and the average quarterly volume growth was 48%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 53
P/E Growth Rating: 61
Price Growth Rating: 53
SMR Rating: 65
Profit Risk Rating: 75
Seasonality Score: 2 (-100 ... +100)
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HESDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a producer of crude oil

Industry OilGasProduction

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Oil And Gas Production
Address
1185 Avenue of the Americas
Phone
+1 212 997-8500
Employees
1623
Web
https://www.hess.com
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HES and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HES has been closely correlated with EOG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HES jumps, then EOG could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To HES
1D Price
Change %
HES100%
+0.24%
EOG - HES
81%
Closely correlated
+0.25%
COP - HES
81%
Closely correlated
+0.45%
MRO - HES
80%
Closely correlated
+0.54%
DVN - HES
78%
Closely correlated
+0.07%
FANG - HES
78%
Closely correlated
+1.54%
More
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