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Indra Bhattacharjee's Avatar
published in Blogs
Apr 09, 2019

Mondelez (MDLZ, $49.63) and Campbell (CPB, $ $39.41) stuck in deadlock over Arnott’s cookies

Mondelez and Campbell Soup are currently in a deadlock over the sale of the soup company’s Arnott’s cookie brands, one of Mondelez’s international businesses.

Recently, the Oreo's owner had submitted a final bid for Campbell’s international businesses, including Arnott’s. But the bid was modestly below Campbell’s price expectation of $3 billion, resulting in an impasse.

Arnott’s has the interest of some other buyers like KKR, a consortium backed by private equity firm. It is undisclosed what price the private equity firm has offered to buy Arnott, but it is known that they pay less for acquisitions than corporate buyers.

The impasse has put Campbell in an awkward situation, as it may either have to sell Arnott’s below its desired price or abandon the sales process altogether. Last year,Campbell had already put the unit up for sale to help pay down its debt following its $6.2-billion purchase of pretzel and chip company Snyder’s-Lance.

The deadlock also beckons the question of whether the two companies are better off separate than together.

The impasse also poses bigger challenges for the food industry as a number of big brands like Kraft Heinz (KHC), Kellogg (K) and General Mills (GIS) are now focussing on smaller investments on nimbler brands than pay big premiums. Mendelez recently bought premium cookie brand Tate’s Bake Shop for $500 million. Frito-Lay-owner PepsiCo likewise has made small add-ons, recently buying apple chips maker Bare Foods for less than $200 million. 

Related Ticker: MDLZ

MDLZ in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on February 13, 2024

MDLZ may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 43 cases where MDLZ's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 55 cases where MDLZ's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 28, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MDLZ as a result. In of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MDLZ advanced for three days, in of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 314 cases where MDLZ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for MDLZ moved out of overbought territory on February 05, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 54 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MDLZ turned negative on February 07, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

MDLZ moved below its 50-day moving average on February 27, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for MDLZ crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 21, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MDLZ declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.440) is normal, around the industry mean (8.275). P/E Ratio (19.989) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.788). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.226) is also within normal values, averaging (2.694). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.033) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.753) is also within normal values, averaging (28.009).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MDLZ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Mondelez International (NASDAQ:MDLZ), Kraft Heinz Company (The) (NASDAQ:KHC), General Mills (NYSE:GIS), Campbell Soup Company (NYSE:CPB), Beyond Meat (NASDAQ:BYND).

Industry description

A specialty/candy manufacturer specializes in one or more of the following: chocolate, candies, pasta, condiments, seasonings, among other items. Hershey Company, McCormick & Company and J.M. Smucker Company are some of the major firms in this segment. Demand for this industry’s products comes from both institutions/restaurants as well as households.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Food: Specialty/Candy Industry is 7.95B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 6.25K to 327.81B. NSRGY holds the highest valuation in this group at 327.81B. The lowest valued company is OGGFF at 6.25K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Food: Specialty/Candy Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 1%, and the average quarterly price growth was 56%. BSFC experienced the highest price growth at 38%, while NBND experienced the biggest fall at -22%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Food: Specialty/Candy Industry was 31%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -8% and the average quarterly volume growth was 26%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 51
P/E Growth Rating: 65
Price Growth Rating: 60
SMR Rating: 70
Profit Risk Rating: 78
Seasonality Score: 6 (-100 ... +100)
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MDLZDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of packaged food products

Industry FoodSpecialtyCandy

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Food Major Diversified
Address
905 West Fulton Market
Phone
+1 847 943-4000
Employees
91000
Web
https://www.mondelezinternational.com
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MDLZ and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MDLZ has been loosely correlated with K. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MDLZ jumps, then K could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To MDLZ
1D Price
Change %
MDLZ100%
-0.96%
K - MDLZ
62%
Loosely correlated
-0.58%
HSY - MDLZ
60%
Loosely correlated
+0.07%
KHC - MDLZ
58%
Loosely correlated
-0.43%
CAG - MDLZ
58%
Loosely correlated
-1.07%
GIS - MDLZ
55%
Loosely correlated
-0.37%
More
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