Newmont (NEM) Q2 2026 Earnings: Record Free Cash Flow Supports Shareholder Returns
Key Takeaways
- Revenue reached $6.12 billion, rising 15% year-over-year but falling short of the $6.38 billion consensus estimate, partly due to lower gold and silver sales volumes.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.10, up from $1.43 a year ago, though narrowly below the most widely cited analyst estimate of $2.12.
- Record second-quarter free cash flow of $2.2 billion underscored Newmont's ability to convert high gold prices into substantial cash generation.
- Attributable gold production declined to 1.29 million ounces, pressured by a seismic event at Cadia and planned mine sequencing at several operations.
- Gold all-in sustaining costs (AISC) — a key cost metric for miners — rose to $1,621 per ounce on a by-product basis, still below full-year guidance of $1,680 per ounce.
- $1.9 billion returned to shareholders since the last earnings call through dividends and share repurchases, reinforcing management's capital allocation commitment.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
Newmont Corporation (NEM), the world's largest gold producer and the only gold miner in the S&P 500 Index, delivered its second-quarter 2026 results on July 23 against a backdrop of elevated but retreating gold prices. After hitting record highs earlier in the year, gold pulled back as trade tensions eased and the U.S. dollar strengthened. For investors, this quarter represented a critical test of whether Newmont could sustain the exceptional profitability seen in Q1, when adjusted EPS reached $2.90. With full-year guidance calling for approximately 5.3 million attributable gold ounces at an AISC of $1,680 per ounce, the Q2 print offered vital insight into the company's cost trajectory, operational resilience, and ability to reward shareholders amid fluctuating commodity markets. I also checked comparable miners using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how NEM's metrics align with sector peers.
Reported Results
Newmont reported second-quarter 2026 revenue of $6.12 billion, up from $5.32 billion in the same period last year, but below the consensus estimate of approximately $6.38 billion. Adjusted net income rose to $2.25 billion, or $2.10 per diluted share, compared to $1.59 billion, or $1.43 per share, in Q2 2025. While adjusted EPS narrowly missed the most widely followed consensus of $2.12, it exceeded expectations from several other analyst surveys. Reported net income attributable to shareholders was $2.20 billion, or $2.06 per diluted share.
The company produced 1.29 million attributable gold ounces during the quarter, a slight sequential decline driven primarily by the impact of a seismic event at the Cadia mine in Australia and lower-grade ore from planned mine sequencing at Ahafo South, Peñasquito, and Yanacocha. Cadia resumed normal operations by mid-June. Copper production dropped 43% sequentially to 17,000 tonnes, reflecting the Cadia disruption, while silver output fell 22% to 7 million ounces. The average realized gold price was $4,414 per ounce — a decline of $486 per ounce from Q1's record $4,900 but a 33% increase year-over-year.
Gold by-product AISC rose to $1,621 per ounce, up from $1,029 in Q1 2026, driven by lower co-product volumes, higher sustaining capital at Cadia, increased Ghana royalties, and elevated diesel prices. Despite the increase, year-to-date AISC of $1,321 per ounce remains well below the company's full-year guidance midpoint. Adjusted EBITDA came in at $3.8 billion, while net cash from operating activities totaled $2.92 billion. The company ended the quarter with $9.0 billion in cash and a net cash position of $3.4 billion. From what I see, the strong cash generation stands out even with the production dip.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Newmont shares fell 1.08% during regular trading on July 23 to close at $94.72, with an additional 1.34% decline in after-hours trading to $93.45 following the earnings release. The revenue miss appeared to weigh on sentiment, even as the company emphasized its record second-quarter free cash flow and reaffirmed full-year guidance. The stock has traded within a wide range over the past 12 months, between a 52-week low of $59.96 and a high of $134.88, and remains down approximately 4% year-to-date, underperforming the S&P 500. Investor attention now appears focused on whether the company can sustain cash returns through buybacks and dividends if gold prices continue to moderate from earlier highs, and whether Cadia's recovery and second-half production ramp-up materialize as projected.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Newmont reaffirmed its full-year 2026 production guidance of approximately 5.3 million attributable gold ounces, signaling confidence that operations will strengthen through year-end. Management expects third-quarter production to be broadly in line with Q2 before a meaningful fourth-quarter acceleration, supported by Lihir's completion of planned maintenance and the Ahafo North mine reaching its full production run rate.
On the cost side, investors should monitor oil price movements closely. Management noted that every $10-per-barrel change in oil prices translates to roughly a $60 million impact on full-year costs. With diesel, explosives, cyanide, grinding media, and freight all sensitive to energy prices, the cost outlook remains tied to global crude markets. Ghana's increased royalty regime also represents a structural cost headwind that will persist.
Capital returns remain a central theme. Newmont has repurchased $1.7 billion in stock since the last earnings call, with $4.3 billion remaining under its $6 billion authorization. Since February 2024, the company has reduced its share count by approximately 9%, amplifying per-share metrics for remaining shareholders. The declared quarterly dividend of $0.26 per share continues the company's track record of returning cash to investors.
Additionally, the regulatory approval received for the Red Chris Block Cave project in British Columbia — achieved through a consent-based process with the Tahltan Nation — marks a significant milestone. While a final investment decision is still pending, the project represents a potentially meaningful long-term growth option. Combined with executive leadership appointments from Newmont's internal pipeline, the company appears to be positioning for its next phase of operational delivery. I’m watching the second-half production ramp closely to see how it affects the cost profile.
Using AI Tools in My Research Process
When analyzing earnings like Newmont’s, I often turn to Tickeron’s AI Screener to quickly compare key metrics across the mining sector and identify patterns in cash flow and cost trends. It helps me filter for companies with strong free cash flow generation and manageable AISC levels, saving time on manual data crunching. This kind of tool supports a more structured approach to evaluating opportunities in volatile commodity markets.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Contributor
Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
NEM sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for NEM moved above the 200-day moving average on September 10, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.72% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 253 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 23, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NEM as a result. In 46 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NEM turned negative on September 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 59 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 59%.
NEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 90%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NEM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 62, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.470) is normal, around the industry mean (3.888). P/E Ratio (14.634) is within average values for comparable stocks, (46.261). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
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General Information
a company which explores and mines for gold and silver
Industry PreciousMetals
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