Stellar Performance: Swing Trader's Sector Rotation Strategy (TA&FA) Generates 43.53% for NOG
Northern Oil and Gas (NOG) has witnessed a considerable upswing, yielding an impressive 43.53% return, a victory largely attributable to the Swing Trader's Sector Rotation Strategy. This strategy leverages a mix of Technical Analysis (TA) and Fundamental Analysis (FA) to pivot assets between various sectors in a bid to capitalize on emerging trends.
Crucial to understanding the recent success of this strategy is acknowledging the change in NOG's trend direction. On June 26, 2023, NOG shifted its direction, stepping over its 50-day moving average, an action symbolizing a transition from a downward to an upward trend.
The 50-day moving average is a critical technical indicator that swing traders often rely on to gauge the short-to-medium-term trend of a stock. If a stock is trading above this average, it's generally considered to be in an upward trend, and conversely, if it's trading below, it signals a downward trend.
For NOG, this pivotal moment marked a significant change in fortune. This trend shift is significant not just in isolation but also when analyzed with historical data. Looking back at 41 similar instances in the past where NOG moved above its 50-day moving average, the stock price increased further within the following month 39 times. That's an impressive track record, with a success rate of over 90%.
The Sector Rotation Strategy can be considered a driving force behind these significant returns. By utilizing both TA and FA, swing traders can make informed decisions about when and where to rotate their assets. Technical Analysis provides insight into price and volume patterns, offering clues about potential future performance based on historical trends. On the other hand, Fundamental Analysis dives into financial data, such as earnings reports and economic indicators, to evaluate a company's intrinsic value.
In this case, the Strategy identified NOG as a promising opportunity. The upward trend indicated by TA, combined with promising fundamentals, pointed to a strong potential for further growth. The ensuing performance of NOG validated this analysis, delivering substantial returns for those who had the foresight to rotate into this stock.
The recent performance of NOG is a testament to the power of the Sector Rotation Strategy. By keeping an eye on trend changes and using a balanced mix of TA and FA, swing traders can effectively navigate the markets and identify lucrative opportunities. This method has the potential to generate impressive returns, as exemplified by the substantial 43.53% returns for NOG.
The 10-day RSI Indicator for NOG moved out of overbought territory on September 05, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In of the 30 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 13, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NOG as a result. In of 100 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NOG turned negative on September 11, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
NOG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 20, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NOG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
NOG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 01, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NOG advanced for three days, in of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 268 cases where NOG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NOG’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.558) is normal, around the industry mean (6.197). P/E Ratio (2.672) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.491). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.847) is also within normal values, averaging (2.534). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.125) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.938) is also within normal values, averaging (120.438).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NOG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a company which drills exploratory and developmental wells, primarily in the northern regions of the US and southern Canada.
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A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NOG has been closely correlated with MGY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NOG jumps, then MGY could also see price increases.