NuScale Power (SMR) Stock Analysis: Recent Price Movements and Market Outlook
Key Takeaways
- NuScale Power's Q3 2025 earnings revealed higher revenue but substantial losses, contributing to stock volatility.
- Analyst downgrades in November 2025 reflected concerns over execution risks in the small modular reactor sector.
- The U.S. Department of Energy's selection of partners for SMR deployments signals potential long-term growth.
- Stock price has shown momentum swings, with recent sessions recovering from multi-week lows.
- Market sentiment remains mixed amid industry catalysts like AI-driven energy demand.
- Forward factors include shareholder votes and project milestones that could influence valuation.
Current Market Snapshot
NuScale Power (SMR) has experienced notable volatility in recent trading sessions, reflecting broader trends in the nuclear energy sector. The stock has traded within a wide range over the latest market cycle, influenced by shifts in investor sentiment toward small modular reactors amid rising energy needs from data centers and AI applications. While the company maintains a market capitalization in the mid-single-digit billions, its price action has been marked by pullbacks from earlier peaks, with momentum indicators suggesting potential stabilization. Broader industry factors, including regulatory support and partnerships, continue to underpin interest, though operational challenges persist. This positions SMR as a high-beta play in the clean energy space, appealing to growth-oriented investors monitoring sector developments.
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Recent Developments Driving SMR Price Action
NuScale Power released its third-quarter 2025 earnings on November 6, reporting revenue of $8.2 million, a significant increase from $0.475 million in the prior year, driven by progress on Fluor's Phase 2 front-end engineering and design study. However, the company posted a net loss of $532 million, or -$1.85 per share, far exceeding analyst expectations of -$0.11 per share, due to higher operating expenses and non-cash charges. This earnings miss triggered a sharp decline in stock price, with shares dropping over 7% in subsequent sessions as investors reacted to the widened losses and lack of immediate profitability.
Analyst actions further pressured sentiment, with UBS lowering its price target from $38 to $20 on November 25 while maintaining a neutral rating, citing execution risks and delayed commercial orders. Earlier in the period, RBC Capital set a $32 target on November 10, but overall consensus shifted toward caution. Zacks highlighted rising losses and share liquidation as key concerns in a November 24 report, labeling SMR a "Bear of the Day."
On the operational front, NuScale advanced partnerships, including deepened collaboration with ENTRA1 Energy to deploy up to 6GW of SMR capacity by 2030, bolstering its project pipeline. The U.S. Department of Energy announced on December 2 the selection of Tennessee Valley Authority and Holtec International to support early SMR deployments, potentially accelerating regulatory and funding pathways for NuScale's technology. These developments provided some counterbalance, contributing to a 5.9% uptick in shares on December 3 as market participants weighed long-term potential against near-term challenges.
Macroeconomic factors, including sustained demand for nuclear power from AI data centers, supported underlying interest, but broader market sell-offs in meme stocks and nuclear peers amplified volatility. Fluor's ownership stake in NuScale, nearing 40%, tied SMR's fortunes to its parent's performance, with Fluor's raised guidance on November 7 indirectly lifting sentiment. A special stockholder meeting in December to vote on increasing authorized shares added uncertainty, as dilution risks weighed on price action. Overall, these events drove a 38% monthly decline in November, with momentum shifting toward recovery in early December amid industry catalysts.
Forward-Looking Factors to Watch
Traders and investors should monitor NuScale Power's special stockholder meeting in December 2025, where a vote on expanding authorized shares could impact capital structure and funding capabilities. The completion of Fluor's Phase 2 FEED study, nearing its end, may generate additional revenue and provide updates on project timelines. Fourth-quarter 2025 earnings, expected around March 2026, will offer insights into full-year performance, with consensus anticipating a loss of -$0.11 per share.
Regulatory decisions from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission and progress on TVA/ENTRA1 partnerships remain key, potentially influencing deployment milestones. Industry-wide catalysts, such as federal support for SMRs and nuclear waste management policies, could shape sector sentiment. Analyst consensus points to a $38.35 average price target, reflecting expectations for growth by 2028, though tied to revenue projections of $402 million. These elements underscore the need to track operational execution and macroeconomic energy trends.
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SMR's RSI Oscillator leaves overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for SMR moved out of overbought territory on September 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 27 of the 30 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 11, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SMR as a result. In 71 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SMR turned negative on September 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 41 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 88%.
SMR moved below its 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for SMR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SMR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
SMR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for SMR entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 16 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +7.50% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SMR advanced for three days, in 196 of 248 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.575) is normal, around the industry mean (5.342). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (66.065). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.014) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (208.333) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. SMR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SMR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock worse than average.
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