GET DAILY SIGNALSOil and Energy SPDRs Receive Bearish Signals
The oil industry and the various other energy industries associated with oil production have been on really nice rallies over the last two months. The gains seemed to be propelled by vaccine news and the hope that the world economy would get back on track sooner than thought.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) gained 56% from its October low to its high a few weeks ago. The fund quickly shifted from oversold to overbought and it moved above its 52-week moving average during the rally. Unfortunately the weekly stochastic readings made a bearish crossover last week and appear as though they may be headed out of overbought territory—a possible bearish signal.
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) experienced an even greater gain, rallying 66.9% from its October low to its high two weeks ago. The XOP also saw its oscillators move from oversold territory to overbought territory during the rally and it also moved above its 52-week moving average. In this case the fund hadn’t been above the moving average in over two years.
Like the XLE, the XOP saw its weekly stochastic indicators make a bearish crossover while in overbought territory. We see similar instances in June and January of this year and back in April 2019. In all three of these previous instances, the XOP dropped considerably in the months that followed. The same pattern can be seen on the XLE weekly chart.
I imagine if you went through the weekly charts of the stocks that are holdings in these funds you would see a number of them following the same pattern.
Looking at the Tickeron Screener, 24 of the 26 stocks in the XLE are rated as a “sell” on the Tickeron Scorecard with only one “buy” and one “hold” rating. In the XOP, 35 of 42 receive a scorecard rating of a “sell” while five are rated as a “buy” and two have “hold” ratings.
If we look at the fundamental and technical indicators for the two funds, the XLE has one negative and one positive indicator on the fundamental side. On the technical side it gets two positive indications, but five bearish ones. The XOP doesn’t have any positive indicators from the fundamentals and it has one negative. On the technical side it has two bullish signals and four bearish signals.
The Tickeron comparison between the two ETFs shows how each fund ranks against one another and against other funds. We also see that there have been a number of signals generated on the funds in recent weeks.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
Momentum Indicator for XLE turns negative, indicating new downward trend
XLE saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 74 of the 82 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLE turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 48 of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
XLE moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +2.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLE advanced for three days, in 354 of 387 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
XLE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 314 of 350 cases where XLE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
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