Oil and Energy SPDRs Receive Bearish Signals
The oil industry and the various other energy industries associated with oil production have been on really nice rallies over the last two months. The gains seemed to be propelled by vaccine news and the hope that the world economy would get back on track sooner than thought.
The Energy Select Sector SPDR (XLE) gained 56% from its October low to its high a few weeks ago. The fund quickly shifted from oversold to overbought and it moved above its 52-week moving average during the rally. Unfortunately the weekly stochastic readings made a bearish crossover last week and appear as though they may be headed out of overbought territory—a possible bearish signal.
The SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF (XOP) experienced an even greater gain, rallying 66.9% from its October low to its high two weeks ago. The XOP also saw its oscillators move from oversold territory to overbought territory during the rally and it also moved above its 52-week moving average. In this case the fund hadn’t been above the moving average in over two years.
Like the XLE, the XOP saw its weekly stochastic indicators make a bearish crossover while in overbought territory. We see similar instances in June and January of this year and back in April 2019. In all three of these previous instances, the XOP dropped considerably in the months that followed. The same pattern can be seen on the XLE weekly chart.
I imagine if you went through the weekly charts of the stocks that are holdings in these funds you would see a number of them following the same pattern.
Looking at the Tickeron Screener, 24 of the 26 stocks in the XLE are rated as a “sell” on the Tickeron Scorecard with only one “buy” and one “hold” rating. In the XOP, 35 of 42 receive a scorecard rating of a “sell” while five are rated as a “buy” and two have “hold” ratings.
If we look at the fundamental and technical indicators for the two funds, the XLE has one negative and one positive indicator on the fundamental side. On the technical side it gets two positive indications, but five bearish ones. The XOP doesn’t have any positive indicators from the fundamentals and it has one negative. On the technical side it has two bullish signals and four bearish signals.
The Tickeron comparison between the two ETFs shows how each fund ranks against one another and against other funds. We also see that there have been a number of signals generated on the funds in recent weeks.
XLE's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for XLE moved out of oversold territory on May 17, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 29 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 29 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLE advanced for three days, in of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 30, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XLE as a result. In of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLE turned negative on May 31, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
XLE moved below its 50-day moving average on May 02, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XLE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 04, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for XLE moved below the 200-day moving average on May 12, 2023. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for XLE entered a downward trend on May 25, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
Category Energy
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| QTUM | 49.02 | 0.87 | +1.82% |
| Defiance Quantum ETF | |||
| AVDE | 56.62 | 0.94 | +1.69% |
| Avantis® International Equity ETF | |||
| KMET | 22.96 | 0.28 | +1.25% |
| KraneShares Electrification Mtls Str ETF | |||
| MBCC | 25.54 | 0.19 | +0.76% |
| Monarch Blue Chips Core ETF | |||
| IBMN | 26.22 | 0.05 | +0.17% |
| iShares iBonds Dec 2025 Term Muni Bd ETF | |||
XLE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, XLE has been closely correlated with FENY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 100% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if XLE jumps, then FENY could also see price increases.
