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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Nov 11, 2019

Oil Service Sector stocks showing extreme risk, poor fundamental ratings

Most of the big oil services companies have reported earnings already for the third quarter. The sector has been trending higher over the last month as those earnings reports have been released, but many of the stocks are now in overbought territory based on their daily stochastic readings. On November 7, four of top six holdings in the VanEck Vectors Oil Services ETF (NYSE: OIH) appeared on a bearish scan that I run each night. One of the factors in the scan is a bearish crossover from the stochastics and that the readings are at or near overbought territory.

We see on the daily chart of the OIH that was in overbought territory before the indicators turned lower in the past week.

The four holdings of the OIH that appeared on my bearish scan were Halliburton (NYSE: HAL), Helmerich & Payne (NYSE: HP), National Oilwell Varco (NYSE: NOV), and Schlumberger (NYSE: SLB). I took those four stocks and ran them through Tickeron’s Screener in order to see how the companies were doing on a fundamental basis. The results were not good. We see in the table below that all four get Profit vs. Risk rating scores of 100 and that is the worst possible score a stock can get. The SMR ratings from Tickeron are all in bottom 10% of ratings. Halliburton and Helmerich & Payne both have Price/Growth ratings in the bottom 20% while Schlumberger’s rating is in the bottom quartile of readings.

The only ratings that are positive are the Valuation ratings for Helmerich & Payne, Halliburton, and Schlumberger. The highest rating in any category for all of the ratings is the P/E Growth rating for Helmerich & Payne.

I also ran the stocks through Investor’s Business Daily’s ratings system and what came out was more of the same—lots of poor readings and only one really positive reading. The lone rating in the top quartile was Helmerich & Payne’s EPS rating at 76. The SMR ratings for Halliburton and Helmerich & Payne are average. All of the other readings are below average with many of them being in the bottom 20% – those are designated with the red highlights. 

The one category from IBD that isn’t a fundamental indicator is the Relative Price Strength rating. We see that Halliburton and Helmerich & Payne both rank in the bottom 20% in this category which measures the stock’s price performance against all other stocks for the past year. National Oilwell Varco and Schlumberger fare a little better, but they are both still in the bottom quartile in terms of price performance.

To complete the analysis process that I use, I looked at the sentiment indicators for all four of the stocks. What I found was that despite the poor fundamentals and the downward trends in the stocks, there were still a few extremely optimistic sentiment indicators.

Halliburton’s buy percentage is at 86.2% with 25 of 29 analysts rating the stock as a “buy”. Schlumberger’s buy percentage is in the average range while National Oilwell Varco and Helmerich & Payne show a little bit of pessimism toward the stock with buy percentages that are below average. Remember we view sentiment from a contrarian viewpoint so seeing below average readings is a positive sign for the stock.

As for the short interest ratios for these four companies, Schlumberger’s is low at 1.9 and that is a concern. Halliburton’s ratio is in the average range and Helmerich & Payne and National Oilwell Varco have short interest ratios that are slightly higher than average. Again that is a positive sign that the ratios are above average.

Overall, the oil service sector looks like a pretty risky bet at this point in time. Of these four stocks, only National Oilwell Varco hasn’t reported earnings yet, so I wouldn’t look to earnings as a catalyst that helps improve the fundamental picture.

Related Ticker: OIH

OIH in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on June 03, 2024

OIH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 41 cases where OIH's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 18, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OIH as a result. In of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OIH advanced for three days, in of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 280 cases where OIH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for OIH turned negative on May 23, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 38 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

OIH moved below its 50-day moving average on May 22, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OIH declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 1.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 89%.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Schlumberger Limited (NYSE:SLB), Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL), Valaris Limited (NYSE:VAL), Transocean Ltd (NYSE:RIG).

Industry description

The investment seeks to replicate as closely as possible, before fees and expenses, the price and yield performance of the MVIS® US Listed Oil Services 25 Index. The fund normally invests at least 80% of its total assets in securities that comprise the fund's benchmark index. The index includes common stocks and depositary receipts of U.S. exchange-listed companies in the oil services segment. Such companies may include small- and medium-capitalization companies and foreign companies that are listed on a U.S. exchange. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the VanEck Oil Services ETF ETF is 10.04B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 797.03M to 79.1B. SLB holds the highest valuation in this group at 79.1B. The lowest valued company is CLB at 797.03M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the VanEck Oil Services ETF ETF was -3%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was -8%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4%. XPRO experienced the highest price growth at 2%, while LBRT experienced the biggest fall at -12%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the VanEck Oil Services ETF ETF was 30%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 62% and the average quarterly volume growth was 22%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 57
P/E Growth Rating: 67
Price Growth Rating: 57
SMR Rating: 59
Profit Risk Rating: 70
Seasonality Score: -26 (-100 ... +100)
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OIHDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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