Papa John’s (PZZA, $43.15) struggles, but shareholders remain optimistic
Papa John’s International fell short of analysts’ fourth quarter expectations, as same store sales declined by 8.1% in North America. Outside of North America, same-store sales saw smaller declines of 2.6%.
In the fiscal fourth quarter, Papa John’s rocked to a net loss of $13.8 million, or 44 cents per share, from net income of $28.5 million, or 81 cents per share, a year earlier. Net sales fell 20% to $374.0 million versus analyst expectations of $390.1 million. Adjusted earnings per share clocked-in at 15 cents versus an expected 17 cents.
It is alleged that sales suffered after the company’s founder and former CEO, John Schnatter, used a racial slur in a conference call.
Since then the company has been trying to improve its public image. It spent $2.2 million during the fourth quarter — and $5.8 million total during fiscal 2018 — on PR costs. In January, the Papa John’s Foundation gave a $500,000 grant to Bennett College, a struggling historically black college for women.
The company has also launched a new loyalty program that will help boost its sales through analysis of customer data. To encourage customers to join the program, the pizza chain was offering a variety of deals, including free cheese sticks when customers spent more than $12.
Papa John's is also diversifying its offerings with six new specialty pizzas, such as Ultimate Pepperoni and Zesty Italian Trio, as well as the Hot Honey and Chicken Waffles pizza, the winner of a Twitter poll it conducted.
In light of all these upgrades, the company is expecting earnings of $1.00 to $1.20 per share in fiscal 2019. Analysts are also expecting full-year earnings of $1.20 per share. The company also has plans to open 75-100 new stores during 2019.
PZZA in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 11, 2026
PZZA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 33 of 45 cases where PZZA's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PZZA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 33 of 47 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PZZA just turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where PZZA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PZZA advanced for three days, in 179 of 273 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 01, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PZZA as a result. In 63 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PZZA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
The Aroon Indicator for PZZA entered a downward trend on October 05, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 1 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PZZA's P/B Ratio (-28.568) is slightly lower than the industry average of (5.328). P/E Ratio (25.126) is within average values for comparable stocks, (37.793). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.304) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). PZZA's Dividend Yield (0.092) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (0.339) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. PZZA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PZZA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 86, placing this stock worse than average.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
an operator of pizza delivery and restaurants
Industry Restaurants
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