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Indra Bhattacharjee's Avatar
published in Blogs
Feb 28, 2019

Papa John’s (PZZA, $43.15) struggles, but shareholders remain optimistic

Papa John’s International fell short of analysts’ fourth quarter expectations, as same store sales declined by 8.1% in North America. Outside of North America, same-store sales saw smaller declines of 2.6%.

In the fiscal fourth quarter, Papa John’s rocked to a net loss of $13.8 million, or 44 cents per share, from net income of $28.5 million, or 81 cents per share, a year earlier. Net sales fell 20% to $374.0 million versus analyst expectations of $390.1 million. Adjusted earnings per share clocked-in at 15 cents versus an expected 17 cents.

It is alleged that sales suffered after the company’s founder and former CEO, John Schnatter, used a racial slur in a conference call.

Since then the company has been trying to improve its public image. It spent $2.2 million during the fourth quarter — and $5.8 million total during fiscal 2018 — on PR costs. In January, the Papa John’s Foundation gave a $500,000 grant to Bennett College, a struggling historically black college for women.

The company has also launched a new loyalty program that will help boost its sales through analysis of customer data. To encourage customers to join the program, the pizza chain was offering a variety of deals, including free cheese sticks when customers spent more than $12.

Papa John's is also diversifying its offerings with six new specialty pizzas, such as Ultimate Pepperoni and Zesty Italian Trio, as well as the Hot Honey and Chicken Waffles pizza, the winner of a Twitter poll it conducted.

In light of all these upgrades, the company is expecting earnings of $1.00 to $1.20 per share in fiscal 2019. Analysts are also expecting full-year earnings of $1.20 per share. The company also has plans to open 75-100 new stores during 2019. 

Related Ticker: PZZA

PZZA sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average

The 50-day moving average for PZZA moved above the 200-day moving average on February 02, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PZZA advanced for three days, in of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

PZZA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 02, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PZZA as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PZZA turned negative on January 31, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

PZZA moved below its 50-day moving average on February 13, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for PZZA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on February 14, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PZZA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (7.279). P/E Ratio (30.557) is within average values for comparable stocks, (177.806). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.513) is also within normal values, averaging (1.903). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.161) is also within normal values, averaging (2.438).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PZZA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), Yum China Holdings (NYSE:YUMC), Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Noodles & Company (NASDAQ:NDLS).

Industry description

The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Restaurants Industry is 7.45B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 6.73K to 214.99B. MCD holds the highest valuation in this group at 214.99B. The lowest valued company is AMHG at 6.73K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 1%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1%. DPUKY experienced the highest price growth at 10%, while REBN experienced the biggest fall at -22%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was -56%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -49% and the average quarterly volume growth was -37%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 46
P/E Growth Rating: 63
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 81
Seasonality Score: -48 (-100 ... +100)
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PZZADaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

an operator of pizza delivery and restaurants

Industry Restaurants

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Restaurants
Address
2002 Papa John's Boulevard
Phone
+1 502 261-7272
Employees
12000
Web
https://www.papajohns.com
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PZZA and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PZZA has been loosely correlated with FRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PZZA jumps, then FRSH could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To PZZA
1D Price
Change %
PZZA100%
+0.35%
FRSH - PZZA
46%
Loosely correlated
+0.55%
DPZ - PZZA
44%
Loosely correlated
+1.30%
RICK - PZZA
42%
Loosely correlated
+0.75%
BLMN - PZZA
40%
Loosely correlated
+2.89%
WEN - PZZA
40%
Loosely correlated
+1.78%
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