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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Aug 16, 2019

PayPal hits oversold level not seen since 2016

Online payment processor and portal PayPal (Nasdaq: PYPL) peaked at $121.48 back in July and has now fallen for four straight weeks. The selling that has hit the stock coincides with weakness in the overall market, but it has caused an overbought/oversold indicator to reach its lowest level since June 2016. The weekly stochastic readings, specifically the %K reading, have dropped below the 20 level for the first time in over three years.

Even during the fourth quarter selloff in the overall market, PayPal held up better than most stocks, and then when the market rallied in the first quarter the stock moved up over 25% from the December low through the end of March. It continued to climb in the second quarter and half way through July.

PayPal did drop below its 52-week moving average during the fourth quarter, but the oscillators never reached oversold territory. The longer-term moving average of 1o4 weeks never came in to play.

Looking at a shorter term indicator, the Tickeron Technical Analysis Overview noted that “the lower Bollinger Band was broken -- a price increase is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which indicates a buy or call consideration for traders. In 20 of 26 cases where PYPL's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.”

The fundamentals for PayPal are really strong. The company has been able to grow earnings at an average annual rate of 28% over the last three years. The most recent quarterly report showed earnings growth of 48% on a year over year basis. Analysts expect earnings to grow by 30% for 2019 as a whole.

Sales have also grown at a solid pace, growing by 19% per year over the last three years and growing by 12% in the most recent quarter.

The management efficiency measurements are slightly above average with a return on equity of 18.6% and a profit margin of 23%. It is also worth noting that the company doesn’t have any long-term debt.

One of the biggest concerns for PayPal at this time is its valuation. The Tickeron Valuation Rating is a 72 and indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. A rating of 1 points to the most undervalued stocks, while a rating of 100 points to the most overvalued stocks.

The sentiment toward PayPal is slightly more optimistic than the average stock. According to the Wall Street Journal, there are 39 analysts following the company. There are 30 “buy” ratings, eight “hold” ratings, and one “sell” rating. This puts the buy percentage at 76.9% and that is slightly above the high end of the normal range of 65% to 75%. One interesting note about the analysts’ ratings is that there were 44 analysts following the company just two months ago.

The short interest ratio is also slightly skewed to the optimistic side with a reading of 2.0 at this time. There is also an interesting development on this indicator. The number of shares sold short dropped from 15.5 million shares to 12.4 million shares from mid-July through the end of July. This drop in short interest happened as the stock was falling, so it would appear as though short sellers were taking gains.

The overall outlook for PayPal is pretty strong based on the fundamentals and the oversold reading from the weekly stochastics. The sentiment is a little worrisome, but given the way the company has performed in recent years, the optimism seems to be warranted.

Related Ticker: PYPL

PYPL in +1.04% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on May 20, 2024

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where PYPL advanced for three days, in of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.

PYPL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 10, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PYPL as a result. In of 86 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PYPL turned negative on May 08, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

PYPL moved below its 50-day moving average on May 21, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for PYPL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 17, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PYPL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for PYPL entered a downward trend on April 29, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PYPL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.310) is normal, around the industry mean (4.698). P/E Ratio (16.930) is within average values for comparable stocks, (53.456). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.600) is also within normal values, averaging (3.039). PYPL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.042). P/S Ratio (2.417) is also within normal values, averaging (4.562).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PYPL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are VISA (NYSE:V), Mastercard (NYSE:MA), American Express Company (NYSE:AXP), PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ:PYPL), Capital One Financial (NYSE:COF), United Rentals (NYSE:URI), Discover Financial Services (NYSE:DFS), Synchrony Financial (NYSE:SYF), SLM Corp (NASDAQ:SLM), Bread Financial Holdings (NYSE:BFH).

Industry description

A leasing company (e.g. United Rentals, Inc. ) is typically the legal owner of the asset for the duration of the lease, while the lessee has operating control over the asset while also having some share of the economic risks and returns from the change in the valuation of the underlying asset. Per capita disposable income and corporate earnings or cash flow could be some of the critical metrics for this business – the higher the values of these metrics, the potentially greater ability of consumers/businesses to afford apartments/office spaces for rent. Other finance companies include credit/debit card payment processing companies (e.g. Visa Inc. and Mastercard), private label credit cards providers (e.g. Synchrony Financial) and automobile finance companies (e.g. Credit Acceptance Corporation).

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Finance/Rental/Leasing Industry is 11.47B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 2.17K to 573.25B. V holds the highest valuation in this group at 573.25B. The lowest valued company is AZNVF at 2.17K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Finance/Rental/Leasing Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was 22%. XTCYF experienced the highest price growth at 524%, while DXF experienced the biggest fall at -38%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Finance/Rental/Leasing Industry was -25%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -33% and the average quarterly volume growth was 79%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 53
Price Growth Rating: 55
SMR Rating: 62
Profit Risk Rating: 77
Seasonality Score: 29 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a provider of digital and mobile payments on behalf of consumers and merchants

Industry FinanceRentalLeasing

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Data Processing Services
Address
2211 North First Street
Phone
+1 408 967-1000
Employees
27200
Web
https://www.paypal.com
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