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Abhoy Sarkar's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jun 08, 2020

Penn National Gaming’s (PENN, $34.57) shares  rating cut to sell by Deutsche Bank

Casino operator Penn National Gaming’s shares  got downgraded to sell from hold, at Deutsche Bank.

Although Deutsche lifted its price target (citing "the margin profiles of regional gaming operators will be stronger post the pandemic." ) on Penn National to $22 a share from $12,  the new target still represents an almost -40% potential downside from the stock's Friday closing price. 

The investment bank also mentioned that Penn will face a challenge when it comes to improving its margins over its peers , since  "prior margin disciplines and higher-than-peer blended gaming taxes” have compelled Penn, over time, to be “leaner than most", according to the bank.

PENN enters an Uptrend because Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on May 15, 2020

This indicator signals that PENN's price has momentum to move higher, since its current price moved above its price 14 days ago. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 52 of 72 cases where PENN's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.

Current price $34.51 is above $27.29 the highest resistance line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 05/05/20 - 06/05/20, the price experienced a +129% Uptrend. During the week of 05/29/20 - 06/05/20, the stock enjoyed a +10% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The price moved above its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a change from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. In 25 of 37 similar backtested cases where PENN's price crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 68%.

The 10-day Moving Average for this ticker crossed above its 50-day Moving Average on May 06, 2020, which can be construed as a buy signal, indicating that the trend is shifting higher. In 9 of 16 similar cases where PENN's 10-day Moving Average crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 56%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 214 of 298 similar cases where PENN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Indicator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 13 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 29 of 44 cases where PENN's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 66%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 31%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 2.19 to 1.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PENN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 71 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.35) is normal, around the industry mean (5.65). P/E Ratio (43.74) is within average values for comparable stocks, (32.89). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.17) is also within normal values, averaging (1.44). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (1.17) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.29) is also within normal values, averaging (0.91).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Related Ticker: PENN

PENN's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory

The RSI Oscillator for PENN moved out of oversold territory on February 27, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 35 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 61 cases where PENN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PENN just turned positive on March 04, 2024. Looking at past instances where PENN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PENN advanced for three days, in of 310 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

PENN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on January 30, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PENN as a result. In of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The 50-day moving average for PENN moved below the 200-day moving average on February 09, 2024. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PENN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for PENN entered a downward trend on March 04, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.859) is normal, around the industry mean (11.995). P/E Ratio (4.474) is within average values for comparable stocks, (54.764). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.008) is also within normal values, averaging (0.259). PENN has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.031). P/S Ratio (0.431) is also within normal values, averaging (3.561).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. PENN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PENN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Las Vegas Sands Corp (NYSE:LVS), MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM), Wynn Resorts Limited (NASDAQ:WYNN), Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited (NASDAQ:MLCO).

Industry description

Casinos/Gaming includes companies that operate casinos, gaming services, horse racing and harness racing facilities. Think Las Vegas Sands Corp., MGM Resorts International and Wynn Resorts, Ltd. In periods of strong economic growth, consumers tend to spend on discretionary/leisure activities like gambling or games; but consumption is likely to slow down when there’s economic sluggishness.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Casinos/Gaming Industry is 5.24B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 152.98K to 38.65B. LVS holds the highest valuation in this group at 38.65B. The lowest valued company is ROBK at 152.98K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Casinos/Gaming Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 3%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6%. AGTEF experienced the highest price growth at 78%, while THRSF experienced the biggest fall at -29%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Casinos/Gaming Industry was 8%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 16% and the average quarterly volume growth was 28%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 53
P/E Growth Rating: 62
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 74
Profit Risk Rating: 82
Seasonality Score: 2 (-100 ... +100)
Related Portfolios: THE GAMING INDUSTRY
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PENNDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

an operator of gaming and pari-mutuel properties

Industry CasinosGaming

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Casinos Or Gaming
Address
825 Berkshire Boulevard
Phone
+1 610 373-2400
Employees
23333
Web
https://www.pennentertainment.com
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PENN and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PENN has been closely correlated with BYD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PENN jumps, then BYD could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To PENN
1D Price
Change %
PENN100%
-2.43%
BYD - PENN
70%
Closely correlated
-1.94%
CZR - PENN
57%
Loosely correlated
-3.24%
RRR - PENN
57%
Loosely correlated
-0.48%
MCRI - PENN
56%
Loosely correlated
+0.35%
MGM - PENN
56%
Loosely correlated
-2.21%
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