Penn National Gaming trending lower and a bearish signal was just generated
Most gaming stocks have been underperforming the overall market for the last six months. Ongoing concerns about the trade war and the unrest in Hong Kong have taken their toll on casino operators around the world. Even with the group as a whole underperforming, Penn National Gaming (Nasdaq: PENN) has performed worse than its peers. The stock is down over 20% in the past six months while the S&P is up just over 5% during the same time period.
Looking at the daily chart we see that there is a trend channel that has formed over the last six months and it defines the cyclical moves within the overall downward trend. The upper rail connects the highs from March, April, and May. The stock did move above the upper rail in August, but it wasn’t able to close above the trend line. The parallel lower rail connects a number of lows over the last six months. The stock is hovering just below the upper rail at this time.
We also see on the chart that the daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory and just made a bearish crossover on September 4. Over the last few months when the indicators have made bearish crossovers, it has been a sign of moves to the downside—especially when the indicators were in overbought territory at the time of the crossover.
In addition to the bearish crossover from the stochastic readings, the Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal on Penn National Gaming on September 3. The signal showed a confidence level of 86% and past predictions on the stock have been successful 69% of the time. The signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month.
The fundamentals for Penn National are mixed. Earnings have declined on a year over year basis in each of the last two quarters. In the most recent quarterly report the earnings declined by 23% compared to the previous year. Analysts expect earnings for 2019 as a whole to decline slightly.
Another concern regarding Penn National’s fundamentals is the profit margin. The margin is currently at 2.5% which is well below the profit margin for most companies and lower than the industry average.
On the positive side, sales have been growing by 11% per year over the last three years and they were up by 60% in the most recent quarter. The return on equity is also above average at 28.4%.
Looking at the Tickeron Fundamental Analysis Overview we see that the Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating for Penn National Gaming is 73, indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PENN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility.
Like the fundamentals, the sentiment toward Penn National Gaming is mixed. Analysts are overly bullish on the stock with 12 of 13 analysts rating the stock as a “buy”. The other analyst has the stock rated as a “hold”. This puts the buy percentage at 92.3% and that is much higher than the buy percentage for an average stock. It is particularly concerning to see such optimism for a stock that has been trending lower and a company that hasn’t been performing all that well.
The short interest ratio is well above average at 4.9 and that is indicative of extreme pessimism. While the ratio is high currently, the ratio has declined in recent months. The current reading is from the mid-August report and it is down from the mid-July reading of 9.8.
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Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
PENN's Stochastic Oscillator sits in oversold zone for 10 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PENN's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 23 of 34 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +3.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PENN advanced for three days, in 173 of 257 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
PENN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 18, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PENN as a result. In 76 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 84%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PENN turned negative on September 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 36 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 77%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PENN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
The Aroon Indicator for PENN entered a downward trend on September 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 47 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.098) is normal, around the industry mean (26.158). P/E Ratio (4.474) is within average values for comparable stocks, (67.292). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.008) is also within normal values, averaging (0.784). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.012) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.336) is also within normal values, averaging (1.049).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. PENN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 99 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PENN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
an operator of gaming and pari-mutuel properties
Industry HotelsResortsCruiselines
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