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Feb 07, 2019
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Philip Morris (PM, $75.51) beats Q4 earnings estimate, shares climb +1.9%

Philip Morris (PM, $75.51) beats Q4 earnings estimate, shares climb +1.9%

Philip Morris International beat earnings and revenue expectations for the fourth quarter, leading to its shares jumping +1.9% early Thursday.

The tobacco & cigarette company reported fourth-quarter earnings of $1.25 per share, which exceeded analysts’ expected $1.17 per share. Revenues for the quarter were $7.5 billion, higher than analysts’ estimate of $7.4 billion.

However, the firm’s  operating income and profits were lower compared to the year-ago quarter. Its cigarette and heated-tobacco-unit shipment fell -4.6% year over year. Revenues still increased from the year-ago period.

The company’s projected earnings for 2019 is $5.37 a share – which represents around +5.7% growth. Analysts are expecting earnings of $5.29 a share.

Philip Morris CEO André Calantzopoulos  indicated that the company is hopeful about its combustible tobacco business and “reduced-risk products” as key drivers of the firm's long-term growth.

Related Ticker: PM

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


PM in +1.24% Uptrend, advancing for three consecutive days on November 12, 2026

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where PM advanced for three days, in 239 of 392 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

PM moved above its 50-day moving average on November 11, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 174 of 328 cases where PM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for PM moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 16 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 36%.

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PM as a result. In 36 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PM turned negative on November 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 46%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.

PM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 70, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PM's P/B Ratio (-35.934) is slightly lower than the industry average of (-7.297). P/E Ratio (28.431) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.512). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.327) is also within normal values, averaging (3.595). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. PM's P/S Ratio (7.022) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.780).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), Altria Group (NYSE:MO).

Industry description

The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Tobacco Industry is 57.21B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 99 to 308.42B. PM holds the highest valuation in this group at 308.42B. The lowest valued company is AHII at 99.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Tobacco Industry was -7%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -11%, and the average quarterly price growth was -28%. ISPR experienced the highest price growth at 22%, while XXII experienced the biggest fall at -33%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Tobacco Industry was -41%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 6% and the average quarterly volume growth was -22%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 40
P/E Growth Rating: 50
Price Growth Rating: 60
SMR Rating: 73
Profit Risk Rating: 70
Seasonality Score: 44 (-100 ... +100)
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published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of cigarettes and other tobacco products

Industry Tobacco

Industry
Tobacco
Address
677 Washington Boulevard
Phone
+1 203 905-2410
Employees
84900
Web
https://www.pmi.com
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