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Jul 21, 2020

Philip Morris (PM, $76.40) beats Q2 earnings expectation; reinstates full-year guidance

Philip Morris  reported second-quarter earnings that surpassed analysts’ forecasts. The cigarette company also resumed  issuing its full-year guidance.

The company’s earnings for the quarter came in at $1.29 an adjusted share, beating analysts’ forecast of $1.10 a share . The figure in the year-ago quarter was $1.46 a share.

Revenue of $6.65 billion came in above the $6.5 billion expected by analysts.

Cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume fell -14.5%, on a -17.6% decrease in cigarette shipment volumes. Heated tobacco unit shipment volume was up by +24.3%.

The company  now projects full-year adjusted per-share earnings of between $4.92 to $5.07. (following withdrawal of guidance in the first quarter amid the coronavirus pandemic).

At quarter-end, total users of Philip Morris’ smokeless product IQOS were around 15.4 million, of which approximately 11.2 million had stopped smoking and switched to IQOS (according to Philip Morris).

According to Tickeron, PM's Aroon indicator drops into Downtrend on July 08, 2020

This move indicates a strong Downtrend ahead for PM, and traders may view it as a Sell signal for the next month. Traders may consider selling the ticker or exploring put options. In 58 of 125 cases where PM Aroon's Indicator entered a Downtrend, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 46%.

Current price $76.40 crossed the support line at $76.23 and is trading between $78.30 support and $76.23 support lines. Throughout the month of 06/17/20 - 07/20/20, the price experienced a -0.05% Downtrend. During the week of 07/13/20 - 07/20/20, the stock fell -0.83%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Indicator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day Decline, the ticker is projected to fall further. Considering data from situations where PM declined for three days, in 128 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 44%.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on July 07, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 40 of 86 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 47%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just turned positive. Considering data from situations where PM's MACD histogram became positive, in 17 of 40 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 43%.

The price moved above its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a change from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. In 30 of 55 similar backtested cases where PM's price crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.

The 10-day Moving Average for this ticker crossed above its 50-day Moving Average on July 13, 2020, which can be construed as a buy signal, indicating that the trend is shifting higher. In 8 of 16 similar cases where PM's 10-day Moving Average crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 76%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.27.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 98, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PM's P/B Ratio (-8.77) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.87). P/E Ratio (14.86) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.57). PM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.32) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.79). Dividend Yield (5.43) settles around the average of (5.56) among similar stocks. PM's P/S Ratio (3.76) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.88).

 

Related Ticker: PM

PM in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on February 08, 2024

PM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 30 cases where PM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PM's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 23 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on February 23, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PM as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PM just turned positive on February 22, 2024. Looking at past instances where PM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PM advanced for three days, in of 347 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 64 cases where PM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

PM moved below its 50-day moving average on February 05, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

The 10-day moving average for PM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 26, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for PM entered a downward trend on February 20, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PM's P/B Ratio (1318.699) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (60.713). P/E Ratio (18.012) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.227). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.590) is also within normal values, averaging (5.329). Dividend Yield (0.057) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.992) is also within normal values, averaging (41.021).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. PM’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), Altria Group (NYSE:MO).

Industry description

The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Tobacco Industry is 18.08B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 160.39K to 140.37B. PM holds the highest valuation in this group at 140.37B. The lowest valued company is VHUB at 160.39K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Tobacco Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 2%. PYYX experienced the highest price growth at 39%, while CBDW experienced the biggest fall at -56%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Tobacco Industry was -56%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -66% and the average quarterly volume growth was -55%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 38
P/E Growth Rating: 67
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 63
Profit Risk Rating: 83
Seasonality Score: -47 (-100 ... +100)
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PMDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of cigarettes and other tobacco products

Industry Tobacco

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Tobacco
Address
677 Washington Boulevard
Phone
+1 203 905-2410
Employees
87200
Web
https://www.pmi.com
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PM and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PM has been loosely correlated with MO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if PM jumps, then MO could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To PM
1D Price
Change %
PM100%
+0.27%
MO - PM
54%
Loosely correlated
+0.21%
BTI - PM
48%
Loosely correlated
-1.28%
UVV - PM
43%
Loosely correlated
-1.24%
VGR - PM
42%
Loosely correlated
-0.04%
TPB - PM
31%
Poorly correlated
+7.60%
More
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