Philip Morris (PM, $76.40) beats Q2 earnings expectation; reinstates full-year guidance
Philip Morris reported second-quarter earnings that surpassed analysts’ forecasts. The cigarette company also resumed issuing its full-year guidance.
The company’s earnings for the quarter came in at $1.29 an adjusted share, beating analysts’ forecast of $1.10 a share . The figure in the year-ago quarter was $1.46 a share.
Revenue of $6.65 billion came in above the $6.5 billion expected by analysts.
Cigarette and heated tobacco unit shipment volume fell -14.5%, on a -17.6% decrease in cigarette shipment volumes. Heated tobacco unit shipment volume was up by +24.3%.
The company now projects full-year adjusted per-share earnings of between $4.92 to $5.07. (following withdrawal of guidance in the first quarter amid the coronavirus pandemic).
At quarter-end, total users of Philip Morris’ smokeless product IQOS were around 15.4 million, of which approximately 11.2 million had stopped smoking and switched to IQOS (according to Philip Morris).
According to Tickeron, PM's Aroon indicator drops into Downtrend on July 08, 2020
This move indicates a strong Downtrend ahead for PM, and traders may view it as a Sell signal for the next month. Traders may consider selling the ticker or exploring put options. In 58 of 125 cases where PM Aroon's Indicator entered a Downtrend, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 46%.
Current price $76.40 crossed the support line at $76.23 and is trading between $78.30 support and $76.23 support lines. Throughout the month of 06/17/20 - 07/20/20, the price experienced a -0.05% Downtrend. During the week of 07/13/20 - 07/20/20, the stock fell -0.83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Indicator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day Decline, the ticker is projected to fall further. Considering data from situations where PM declined for three days, in 128 of 289 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 44%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on July 07, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 40 of 86 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 47%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) just turned positive. Considering data from situations where PM's MACD histogram became positive, in 17 of 40 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 43%.
The price moved above its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a change from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. In 30 of 55 similar backtested cases where PM's price crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.
The 10-day Moving Average for this ticker crossed above its 50-day Moving Average on July 13, 2020, which can be construed as a buy signal, indicating that the trend is shifting higher. In 8 of 16 similar cases where PM's 10-day Moving Average crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a positive outlook on this ticker and predicts a further increase by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 76%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.27.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PM’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 98, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 11 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: PM's P/B Ratio (-8.77) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.87). P/E Ratio (14.86) is within average values for comparable stocks, (27.57). PM's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.32) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.79). Dividend Yield (5.43) settles around the average of (5.56) among similar stocks. PM's P/S Ratio (3.76) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.88).
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
PM in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 04, 2026
PM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 21 of 30 cases where PM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PM as a result. In 42 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
PM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for PM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 17, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +1.57% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PM advanced for three days, in 226 of 384 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 29 of 65 cases where PM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PM turned negative on October 01, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 46%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 23 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-14.387) is normal, around the industry mean (16.498). P/E Ratio (26.603) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.513). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.327) is also within normal values, averaging (3.595). Dividend Yield (0.030) settles around the average of (0.037) among similar stocks. PM's P/S Ratio (7.022) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.780).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a manufacturer of cigarettes and other tobacco products
Industry Tobacco
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