Poor fundamentals and a bearish signal for Abercrombie & Fitch as it faces resistance
Fashion retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) fell sharply when it announced first-quarter earnings back in May. The company lowered its outlook for Q2 and that spooked investors that had been gaining in optimism. Here it is two months later and the stock has rallied back from the loss that occurred after earnings.
The company has been struggling for the last few years and the earnings and sales results have been relatively flat. The earnings have been flat over the last three years and they are expected to be down 18% for 2019. Sales have grown at a paltry 2% average over the last three years and they were flat in the first quarter.
The company’s return on equity is only 6.5% and the profit margin is low as well at 3.6%. Both of these figures are well below average.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for Abercrombie on July 17 and that signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 77% and past predictions on the stock have been successful 90% of the time.
The timing of the signal from the prediction engine is interesting when you look at the daily chart of the stock. We see that the stock has rallied over 20% from its June low, but now it is approaching the 50-day moving average as well as the $19.50 area. This area acted as support back in February and then it marked the top of the gap lower in May. This area could act as a resistance along with the 50-day.
Momentum Indicator for ANF turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ANF saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on May 24, 2023. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 81 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 81 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ANF just turned positive on May 09, 2023. Looking at past instances where ANF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
ANF moved above its 50-day moving average on May 24, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ANF crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 26, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ANF advanced for three days, in of 353 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ANF moved out of overbought territory on June 01, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ANF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ANF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 26, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ANF entered a downward trend on May 15, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ANF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.162) is normal, around the industry mean (3.366). P/E Ratio (43.860) is within average values for comparable stocks, (107.547). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (4.382). ANF has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.041). P/S Ratio (0.425) is also within normal values, averaging (1.527).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ANF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
an operator of apparel and personal care stores
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail
ANF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ANF has been closely correlated with URBN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ANF jumps, then URBN could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ANF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANF | 100% | -2.32% | ||
| URBN - ANF | 73% Closely correlated | -1.07% | ||
| AEO - ANF | 64% Loosely correlated | +1.18% | ||
| BURL - ANF | 61% Loosely correlated | -4.09% | ||
| ZUMZ - ANF | 60% Loosely correlated | -2.30% | ||
| BKE - ANF | 59% Loosely correlated | +1.63% | ||
More | ||||
