Poor fundamentals and a bearish signal for Abercrombie & Fitch as it faces resistance
Fashion retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) fell sharply when it announced first-quarter earnings back in May. The company lowered its outlook for Q2 and that spooked investors that had been gaining in optimism. Here it is two months later and the stock has rallied back from the loss that occurred after earnings.
The company has been struggling for the last few years and the earnings and sales results have been relatively flat. The earnings have been flat over the last three years and they are expected to be down 18% for 2019. Sales have grown at a paltry 2% average over the last three years and they were flat in the first quarter.
The company’s return on equity is only 6.5% and the profit margin is low as well at 3.6%. Both of these figures are well below average.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for Abercrombie on July 17 and that signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 77% and past predictions on the stock have been successful 90% of the time.
The timing of the signal from the prediction engine is interesting when you look at the daily chart of the stock. We see that the stock has rallied over 20% from its June low, but now it is approaching the 50-day moving average as well as the $19.50 area. This area acted as support back in February and then it marked the top of the gap lower in May. This area could act as a resistance along with the 50-day.
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Momentum Indicator for ANF turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ANF saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 69 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 57 of the 69 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 83%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 35 of 50 cases where ANF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +2.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ANF advanced for three days, in 269 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 242 of 299 cases where ANF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 81%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ANF moved out of overbought territory on September 10, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 36 of the 54 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ANF turned negative on September 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 41 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ANF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
ANF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ANF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.203) is normal, around the industry mean (3.366). P/E Ratio (11.587) is within average values for comparable stocks, (154.317). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.030) is also within normal values, averaging (0.517). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.013) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.208) is also within normal values, averaging (0.652).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
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General Information
an operator of apparel and personal care stores
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail
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