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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jul 19, 2019

Poor fundamentals and a bearish signal for Abercrombie & Fitch as it faces resistance

Fashion retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) fell sharply when it announced first-quarter earnings back in May. The company lowered its outlook for Q2 and that spooked investors that had been gaining in optimism. Here it is two months later and the stock has rallied back from the loss that occurred after earnings.

The company has been struggling for the last few years and the earnings and sales results have been relatively flat. The earnings have been flat over the last three years and they are expected to be down 18% for 2019. Sales have grown at a paltry 2% average over the last three years and they were flat in the first quarter.

The company’s return on equity is only 6.5% and the profit margin is low as well at 3.6%. Both of these figures are well below average.

The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for Abercrombie on July 17 and that signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 77% and past predictions on the stock have been successful 90% of the time.

The timing of the signal from the prediction engine is interesting when you look at the daily chart of the stock. We see that the stock has rallied over 20% from its June low, but now it is approaching the 50-day moving average as well as the $19.50 area. This area acted as support back in February and then it marked the top of the gap lower in May. This area could act as a resistance along with the 50-day.

Related Ticker: ANF

ANF in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on January 16, 2025

The 10-day moving average for ANF crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on January 16, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on January 13, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ANF as a result. In of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ANF moved below its 50-day moving average on January 13, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ANF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for ANF entered a downward trend on February 14, 2025. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ANF's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 19 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 21 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ANF just turned positive on February 14, 2025. Looking at past instances where ANF's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ANF advanced for three days, in of 361 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

ANF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.431) is normal, around the industry mean (3.964). P/E Ratio (21.196) is within average values for comparable stocks, (110.742). ANF's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.444). ANF has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.028). P/S Ratio (1.624) is also within normal values, averaging (1.139).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ANF’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are TJX Companies (NYSE:TJX), lululemon athletica (NASDAQ:LULU), Gap Inc (The) (NYSE:GAP), Abercrombie & Fitch Co (NYSE:ANF), Foot Locker (NYSE:FL), Guess (NYSE:GES), Stitch Fix (NASDAQ:SFIX).

Industry description

Companies in the apparel and/or footwear retail industry sell clothing, accessories and footwear, for different age groups and genders. The industry’s product categories could range from basics, such as underwear, to luxury items. Some retailers source items from wholesalers or an apparel brand to sell in their stores; some others are licensed to make and market their own retail goods under particular brands. Several companies outsource production of clothing to developing/emerging economies where labor costs are relatively inexpensive. Apparel retail is often influenced by fashion trends, and many companies feel the need to adapt to what’s “in vogue” to retain customers and attract new ones. A major disruption in this industry has been the burgeoning trend in digital shopping – to compete with rapidly growing e-commerce, even traditional retail players are upping the ante on their online platforms. Much of the products’ performance in apparel/footwear retail is cyclical, i.e., economic boom times encourage consumer spending, while recessions induce thriftiness among people. Some large-cap U.S. apparel/footwear retail companies include TJX Companies Inc., Ross Stores, Inc., Lululemon Athletica Inc. and Burlington Stores, Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry is 13.84B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 256K to 119.4B. IDEXY holds the highest valuation in this group at 119.4B. The lowest valued company is DESTQ at 256K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -3%, and the average quarterly price growth was -4%. CTRN experienced the highest price growth at 18%, while ESHDF experienced the biggest fall at -62%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Apparel/Footwear Retail Industry was -10%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -16% and the average quarterly volume growth was -2%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 52
Price Growth Rating: 62
SMR Rating: 59
Profit Risk Rating: 76
Seasonality Score: -52 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

an operator of apparel and personal care stores

Industry ApparelFootwearRetail

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Apparel Or Footwear Retail
Address
6301 Fitch Path
Phone
+1 614 283-6500
Employees
29600
Web
https://corporate.abercrombie.com
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