Poor fundamentals and a bearish signal for Abercrombie & Fitch as it faces resistance
Fashion retailer Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) fell sharply when it announced first-quarter earnings back in May. The company lowered its outlook for Q2 and that spooked investors that had been gaining in optimism. Here it is two months later and the stock has rallied back from the loss that occurred after earnings.
The company has been struggling for the last few years and the earnings and sales results have been relatively flat. The earnings have been flat over the last three years and they are expected to be down 18% for 2019. Sales have grown at a paltry 2% average over the last three years and they were flat in the first quarter.
The company’s return on equity is only 6.5% and the profit margin is low as well at 3.6%. Both of these figures are well below average.
The Tickeron Trend Prediction Engine generated a bearish signal for Abercrombie on July 17 and that signal calls for a decline of at least 4% within the next month. The signal showed a confidence level of 77% and past predictions on the stock have been successful 90% of the time.
The timing of the signal from the prediction engine is interesting when you look at the daily chart of the stock. We see that the stock has rallied over 20% from its June low, but now it is approaching the 50-day moving average as well as the $19.50 area. This area acted as support back in February and then it marked the top of the gap lower in May. This area could act as a resistance along with the 50-day.
Contributor
Harry Richardson — Algorithmic Trader & Strategy Developer Harry is an algorithmic trader specializing in impulse and breakout trading strategies across cryptocurrency and equity markets. With more than 10 years of experience in developing automated trading systems, he focuses on building structured algorithms designed to capture momentum while maintaining strict risk control. His approach combines quantitative analysis, real-market execution, and continuous performance monitoring. Vitalii prioritizes risk management, drawdown control, and strategy stability over short-term optimization, ensuring algorithms are adaptable to changing market conditions. He has developed and tested hundreds of automated strategies, working extensively with live trading environments, forward testing, and portfolio-level algorithm management. His work centers on transforming trading ideas into fully operational, scalable automated systems.
Momentum Indicator for ANF turns negative, indicating new downward trend
ANF saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on August 17, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 69 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 69 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ANF moved out of overbought territory on August 12, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 55 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 55 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ANF turned negative on August 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 40 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ANF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
ANF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 51 cases where ANF's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 50-day moving average for ANF moved above the 200-day moving average on August 10, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ANF advanced for three days, in of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 285 cases where ANF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ANF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.614) is normal, around the industry mean (3.515). P/E Ratio (10.543) is within average values for comparable stocks, (22.291). ANF's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.839). ANF has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.033). P/S Ratio (0.975) is also within normal values, averaging (0.748).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ANF’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock better than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
Advertisement
General Information
an operator of apparel and personal care stores
Industry ApparelFootwearRetail
Advertisement