Redfin (RDFN, $8.42) posts narrower-than-expected loss in Q4; has an optimistic full-year outlook
Redfin posted a narrower-than-anticipated loss in the fourth quarter, and offered an optimistic full-year outlook.
The real estate listings and brokerage company incurred a loss of -57 cents per share, compared to the Street expectations of -$1.07 loss per share.
Revenue fell -25% year-over-year to around $480 million, but surpassed analysts’ expectations of roughly $445 million (based on FactSet data). According to Redfin, overall U.S. home purchases plunged more than -40% from a year earlier.
Redfin is expecting adjusted Ebitda profit in full-year 2023, vs. the company’s adjusted Ebitda loss of -$192 million in fiscal 2022. “We shifted to more digital-margin revenue, lowered expenses, increased our share of online real estate traffic, and improved the quality of our sales force,” mentioned Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman said in a statement. “The discipline to make adjusted Ebitda this year can make us very profitable when the housing market recovers.”
The company said it expects total revenue in the range of $307 million and $324 million in the first quarter, vs. the $295 million estimated by FactSet. Redfin projects a total net loss between -$116 million and -$105 million, and an adjusted Ebitda loss of -$84 million to - $73 million, both wider losses than analysts’ estimates.
RDFN in +0.40% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on October 01, 2024
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where RDFN advanced for three days, in of 303 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
RDFN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 239 cases where RDFN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for RDFN moved out of overbought territory on September 19, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 27, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on RDFN as a result. In of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for RDFN turned negative on September 25, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
RDFN moved below its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RDFN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 84%.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RDFN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: RDFN's P/B Ratio (285.714) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.679). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (59.940). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.670). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.760) is also within normal values, averaging (11.903).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RDFN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 90, placing this stock worse than average.
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a provider of real estate brokerage services
Industry RealEstateDevelopment