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published in Blogs
Feb 19, 2023

Redfin (RDFN, $8.42) posts narrower-than-expected loss in Q4; has an optimistic full-year outlook

Redfin posted a narrower-than-anticipated loss in the fourth quarter, and offered an optimistic full-year outlook.

The real estate listings and brokerage company incurred a loss of -57 cents per share, compared to the Street expectations of -$1.07 loss per share.

Revenue fell -25% year-over-year to around $480 million, but surpassed analysts’ expectations of roughly $445 million (based on FactSet  data). According to Redfin, overall U.S. home purchases plunged more than -40% from a year earlier.

Redfin is expecting adjusted Ebitda profit in full-year 2023, vs. the company’s adjusted Ebitda loss of -$192 million in fiscal 2022. “We shifted to more digital-margin revenue, lowered expenses, increased our share of online real estate traffic, and improved the quality of our sales force,” mentioned Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman said in a statement. “The discipline to make adjusted Ebitda this year can make us very profitable when the housing market recovers.”

The company said it expects total revenue in the range of $307 million and $324 million in the first quarter, vs. the $295 million estimated by FactSet. Redfin projects a total net loss between -$116 million and -$105 million, and an adjusted Ebitda loss of -$84 million to - $73 million, both wider losses than analysts’ estimates.

Related Ticker: RDFN

RDFN's Indicator enters downward trend

The Aroon Indicator for RDFN entered a downward trend on March 04, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 221 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 221 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on February 08, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on RDFN as a result. In of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for RDFN turned negative on March 04, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

RDFN moved below its 50-day moving average on February 02, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RDFN declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where RDFN's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 40 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 53 cases where RDFN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RDFN advanced for three days, in of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

RDFN may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: RDFN's P/B Ratio (285.714) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.204). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (49.649). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.602). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.057) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.773) is also within normal values, averaging (11.550).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. RDFN’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RDFN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.

Industry description

Activities range from the renovation and re-lease of existing buildings to the purchase of raw land and the sale of developed land or parcels to others. Demand for land development business is driven by GDP growth, employment rates, interest rates, and access to/cost of capital. For individual companies in this industry, proper cost estimation and successful bidding play critical roles in their profitability. Large companies could potentially have greater access to capital, while smaller companies can specialize in a specific geographic area or market niche. CBRE Group, VICI Properties Inc and Brookfield Property Partners L.P. are some of the large companies in this industry.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Real Estate Development Industry is 4.59B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 487 to 165.37B. TMHTY holds the highest valuation in this group at 165.37B. The lowest valued company is SHIOF at 487.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Real Estate Development Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was -1%, and the average quarterly price growth was -10%. ACAN experienced the highest price growth at 67%, while UCASU experienced the biggest fall at -49%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Real Estate Development Industry was -1%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -0% and the average quarterly volume growth was -1%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 43
P/E Growth Rating: 60
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 75
Profit Risk Rating: 87
Seasonality Score: 2 (-100 ... +100)
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RDFNDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of real estate brokerage services

Industry RealEstateDevelopment

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Real Estate Development
Address
1099 Stewart Street
Phone
+1 206 576-8610
Employees
4693
Web
https://www.redfin.com
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RDFN and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RDFN has been closely correlated with OPEN. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RDFN jumps, then OPEN could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To RDFN
1D Price
Change %
RDFN100%
-4.71%
OPEN - RDFN
74%
Closely correlated
-2.73%
COMP - RDFN
68%
Closely correlated
-3.64%
HOUS - RDFN
58%
Loosely correlated
-4.48%
EXPI - RDFN
57%
Loosely correlated
-2.73%
HHH - RDFN
52%
Loosely correlated
-0.78%
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