Regional Bank ETF (KRE) hits downward sloped trend line and generates bearish signal
The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE: KRE) could be facing a rough stretch over the next month or so—at least based on several indications. The ETF has been trending lower over the past year and hasn’t bounced back the way the overall market has. The fund peaked at $64.32 last June, dropped below $60 in September, and it hasn’t been back above $57 since last October.
The highs from last June and August connect to create a downward sloped trend line and the fund is just below that line right now. In addition to the trend line being just overhead, the 104-week moving average is in the same vicinity. The 104-week may sound a little unorthodox, but it represents two year’s worth of prices.
Tickeron’s technical analysis overview shows that the KRE moved above its upper Bollinger Band on July 26. In 34 of 37 previous cases, when the fund broke above its upper band it moved lower over the following month. That is an incredibly high success rate.
From a fundamental perspective, bank stocks could be negatively impacted by the Fed cutting rates on July 31. Historically when the Fed enters into a rate-cutting cycle, banks don’t perform as well. When rates get lowered, the spread shrinks between what banks charge on loans and what they pay on deposits. This cuts into the profit margins and operating margins.
KRE in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on August 14, 2025
The 10-day moving average for KRE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 14, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 59 cases where KRE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
KRE moved above its 50-day moving average on August 12, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KRE advanced for three days, in of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 259 cases where KRE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for KRE moved out of overbought territory on September 05, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 40 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 40 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 10, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on KRE as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for KRE turned negative on September 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KRE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
KRE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 22, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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