Regional Bank ETF (KRE) hits downward sloped trend line and generates bearish signal
The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE: KRE) could be facing a rough stretch over the next month or so—at least based on several indications. The ETF has been trending lower over the past year and hasn’t bounced back the way the overall market has. The fund peaked at $64.32 last June, dropped below $60 in September, and it hasn’t been back above $57 since last October.
The highs from last June and August connect to create a downward sloped trend line and the fund is just below that line right now. In addition to the trend line being just overhead, the 104-week moving average is in the same vicinity. The 104-week may sound a little unorthodox, but it represents two year’s worth of prices.
Tickeron’s technical analysis overview shows that the KRE moved above its upper Bollinger Band on July 26. In 34 of 37 previous cases, when the fund broke above its upper band it moved lower over the following month. That is an incredibly high success rate.
From a fundamental perspective, bank stocks could be negatively impacted by the Fed cutting rates on July 31. Historically when the Fed enters into a rate-cutting cycle, banks don’t perform as well. When rates get lowered, the spread shrinks between what banks charge on loans and what they pay on deposits. This cuts into the profit margins and operating margins.
KRE's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KRE turned positive on June 24, 2025. Looking at past instances where KRE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on June 26, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KRE as a result. In of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KRE advanced for three days, in of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 257 cases where KRE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KRE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
KRE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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