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Rick Pendergraft's Avatar
published in Blogs
Aug 12, 2019

Regional Bank ETF (KRE) hits downward sloped trend line and generates bearish signal

The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE: KRE) could be facing a rough stretch over the next month or so—at least based on several indications. The ETF has been trending lower over the past year and hasn’t bounced back the way the overall market has. The fund peaked at $64.32 last June, dropped below $60 in September, and it hasn’t been back above $57 since last October.

The highs from last June and August connect to create a downward sloped trend line and the fund is just below that line right now. In addition to the trend line being just overhead, the 104-week moving average is in the same vicinity. The 104-week may sound a little unorthodox, but it represents two year’s worth of prices.

Tickeron’s technical analysis overview shows that the KRE moved above its upper Bollinger Band on July 26. In 34 of 37 previous cases, when the fund broke above its upper band it moved lower over the following month. That is an incredibly high success rate.

From a fundamental perspective, bank stocks could be negatively impacted by the Fed cutting rates on July 31. Historically when the Fed enters into a rate-cutting cycle, banks don’t perform as well. When rates get lowered, the spread shrinks between what banks charge on loans and what they pay on deposits. This cuts into the profit margins and operating margins.

Related Ticker: KRE

KRE's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory

The RSI Oscillator for KRE moved out of oversold territory on May 12, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In of the 33 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 17, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on KRE as a result. In of 83 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for KRE just turned positive on May 16, 2023. Looking at past instances where KRE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 37 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KRE advanced for three days, in of 288 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

KRE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 68 cases where KRE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KRE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator for KRE entered a downward trend on May 05, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Regions Financial Corp (NYSE:RF), Huntington Bancshares (NASDAQ:HBAN), Veritex Holdings (NASDAQ:VBTX).

Industry description

The investment seeks to provide investment results that, before fees and expenses, correspond generally to the total return performance of an index derived from the regional banking segment of the U.S. banking industry. In seeking to track the performance of the S&P Regional Banks Select Industry Index (the "index"), the fund employs a sampling strategy. It generally invests substantially all, but at least 80%, of its total assets in the securities comprising the index. The index represents the regional banks segment of the S&P Total Market Index ("S&P TMI").

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF ETF is 4.08B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 99.13M to 41.24B. TFC holds the highest valuation in this group at 41.24B. The lowest valued company is HMST at 99.13M.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF ETF was 10%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 44%, and the average quarterly price growth was 62%. VBTX experienced the highest price growth at 6%, while HMST experienced the biggest fall at -14%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the SPDR® S&P Regional Banking ETF ETF was 18%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was -56% and the average quarterly volume growth was 60%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 59
P/E Growth Rating: 76
Price Growth Rating: 66
SMR Rating: 13
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: -32 (-100 ... +100)
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Technical Analysis# Of IndicatorsAvg. Odds
   
   
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

Category Financial

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Category
Financial
Address
SPDR Series TrustOne Lincoln Street Cph0326Boston
Phone
N/A
Web
www.spdrs.com
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KRE and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KRE has been closely correlated with KBE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 99% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if KRE jumps, then KBE could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To KRE
1D Price
Change %
KRE100%
+2.03%
KBE - KRE
99%
Closely correlated
+2.08%
IAT - KRE
98%
Closely correlated
+2.37%
KBWR - KRE
97%
Closely correlated
+2.69%
QABA - KRE
96%
Closely correlated
+2.49%
FTXO - KRE
95%
Closely correlated
+1.73%
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