Regional Bank ETF (KRE) hits downward sloped trend line and generates bearish signal
The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (NYSE: KRE) could be facing a rough stretch over the next month or so—at least based on several indications. The ETF has been trending lower over the past year and hasn’t bounced back the way the overall market has. The fund peaked at $64.32 last June, dropped below $60 in September, and it hasn’t been back above $57 since last October.
The highs from last June and August connect to create a downward sloped trend line and the fund is just below that line right now. In addition to the trend line being just overhead, the 104-week moving average is in the same vicinity. The 104-week may sound a little unorthodox, but it represents two year’s worth of prices.
Tickeron’s technical analysis overview shows that the KRE moved above its upper Bollinger Band on July 26. In 34 of 37 previous cases, when the fund broke above its upper band it moved lower over the following month. That is an incredibly high success rate.
From a fundamental perspective, bank stocks could be negatively impacted by the Fed cutting rates on July 31. Historically when the Fed enters into a rate-cutting cycle, banks don’t perform as well. When rates get lowered, the spread shrinks between what banks charge on loans and what they pay on deposits. This cuts into the profit margins and operating margins.
Momentum Indicator for KRE turns positive, indicating new upward trend
KRE saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on June 26, 2025. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where KRE advanced for three days, in of 290 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 249 cases where KRE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for KRE moved out of overbought territory on July 15, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 67 cases where KRE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for KRE turned negative on July 16, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where KRE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
KRE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 01, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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