Retail Investor Activity Goes Parabolic - Is Trouble Ahead?
Retail investors are jumping into the markets in record numbers. Less certain is whether a majority of these new retail investors have the tools and the experience needed to do well over time. Tickeron's platform of Artificial Intelligence-generated can help.
According to Piper Sandler analysts, retail trading volume that goes through wholesale market makers accounted for nearly half of all trading in the first 11 days in January. For some wealth managers and trading platforms, this has been welcome news. Morgan Stanley just completed its takeover of E*Trade, reporting 900,000 new self-directed accounts over the last two quarters. Charles Schwab, which is now combined with TD Ameritrade, has seen daily trading volumes of close to 8 million trades, which is well higher than volume last year. Schwab has also reported a 16% uptick in average margin loan balances over the past two quarters, suggesting that investors are growing more comfortable with risk-taking.
It's good to see that new investors are showing interest in trading and investing, but more concerning to me is whether investors are taking on too much risk and making trades without having strong fundamental and technical research to back those trades. In my view, it won't take long for many investors to lose money - that's what the market almost always does to blind risk-takers.
Tickeron has several Artificial-Intelligence driven platforms, and if you're new to retail trading and investing, it could be helpful to have A.I. help you drive your investment-decision making. Below, Tickeron's A.I. analyzes major banks that could benefit from the wave of retail investor interest.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
XLF saw its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for XLF moved out of overbought territory on August 11, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 70 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In of the 70 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XLF moved out of overbought territory on August 06, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLF turned negative on August 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLF declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLF broke above its upper Bollinger Band on July 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLF as a result. In of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLF advanced for three days, in of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 299 cases where XLF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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