As the market adjusts to our new reality, we discuss whether the changes we’ve seen are a result of an inherent property of the stock market or a wave of unprecedented social media influence.
The latest hot stock market news stories have had a polarizing effect on new traders. While the opportunities are attractive, expert traders warn about the increasing volatility spurred by the accessibility of social media, and the dangers of the lack of gatekeeping.
Future of Wealth Head Trader, Lance Ippolito; WealthPress Senior Investment Strategist, Jeff Yastine; Dr. Sergey Savastiouk, CEO and Founder of Tickeron; and Alpha Intel Chief Investment Officer, Adam Sarhan weigh in on how social media is interwoven into the fabric of the market, the foreseeable consequences of this tandem, pyramid schemes, the democratization of finance, and give advice to novice traders.
The Influence of Social Media
With the increasing influence social media has on retail traders and investors, comes a responsibility to keep track of many things at once.
Dr. Sergey Savastiouk recaps the situation with the new paradigm: “In this social media environment, we found ourselves in a predicament where the government and the SEC doesn’t have the means for quick action. The frequency and the magnitude of the recent ‘pump-and-dump’ activities were significant, and Robinhood, as a private company, had to react before receiving government guidance. If Robinhood did not react, the situation would have escalated further, resulting in potentially catastrophic circumstances. By halting investing in stocks like GameStop, Robinhood protected themselves and their users, including the inexperienced beginner investors that did not understand the gravity of the situation. Where Robinhood mis-stepped was the lack of transparency and their explanation of the decision to halt the investing in those 13 stocks. Robinhood should have explained their decision in the throes of the volatility."
The speed with which changes happen in the market is one factor.
The time it took large groups of investors to hear about a stock, do some nominal research, and then buy the shares used to take months. This time was condensed to a few weeks with the introduction of the early internet. Smartphones whittled that time to just a few days. Robinhood and other platforms have strategically coaxed new traders into treating the process as a gamble, egged on by the opportunity to receive on-the-spot tips and answers from StockTwits, Reddit, and Twitter.
“That’s both a blessing and a curse,” says Jeff Yastine. “A blessing, since it can magnify a big move in a stock to matter of a few days or weeks. It’s a curse since you may not be ready to pull the trigger on a stock while you do more research - meanwhile other investors have already piled in and run the shares far past where you wanted to buy.”
This new, potentially misleading information breeds an excessive amount of chaotic movement, as traders are subject to knee-jerk reactions. This creates a niche for clever investors who can locate a disconnect and make profit off an advantageous position that others might have missed.
However, Lance Ippolito is cautious: “I would say one of the major benefits social media has had for the average trader is its ability to level the playing field. Keep in mind, social media influencers are posting charts on stocks daily where just the posts via social media can now move a stock. Before, if you wanted quick market news that could move a particular stock, you’d have to pay thousands of dollars for a service like a Bloomberg terminal, wait for someone to publish the info or know someone with connections and info on the inside... Now you can get that info instantly!”
“Pump-and-Dump” Scheme vs. Democratization
Instant information is certainly all the rage – but is social media-influenced trading a creative new pump-and-dump scheme?
“So far, the impact is nothing more than a short-term run up that will flame out and pass,” Adam Sarhan assures. “It will crash back down to earth once the novelty fades. I wouldn’t touch any of these stocks with a ten-foot pole.”
Yastine agrees: “Somewhere down the road, the virality has worn off and they sell and move on to the next fascinating-stock of the moment. Rinse, wash, repeat.”
Ippolito believes that is a recurring cycle that has been going on for many years.
“It just so happens these mentioned lower-traded stocks became a larger group because they’re highly shorted. But this is no different than institutions and hedge funds picking certain groups of large cap stock stocks.”
So then, if what we’re seeing is simply more of the same, and nothing particularly new, then are we even on the path to the democratization of finance?
That depends on how you define democratization.
“Anyone who wants to - even with only literally a few dollars - can participate in the stock market via Robinhood and micro-shares of stock. Anyone who wants to...can buy shares in IPO-type startups via SPACs,” Yastine underscores. “Playing the markets was originally a game intended for the elites only. Now we’re at a time where we’re seeing the little guy join in. I can now see groups being able to keep up with hedge funds, especially in options. I can have a group of 10k people on social media and these folks can go into a stock looking like a big institutional buy.”
“I think we’re at that point now where finance and the stock market has been democratized.”
Ippolito is skeptical. “Going all the way back to the early days of the stock market, we’ve seen short squeezes. There’s no way finance will ever end its corruption or become a level playing field.”
Many believe that a significant part of this corruption stems from the consequences of using commission-free brokers, such as selling trader information for profit, or selling order flow to competitors. The crux of the matter is that while some traders care a lot about this, while others are content with making a profit by any means.
“In the same way that many of us are happy to allow Google to store and gather data on us in return for free email accounts and other popular services, I think a lot of new investors could care less that Robinhood’s backers are using free trading to gather data on their investing activities,” Yastine postulates.
Ippolito and Sarhan argue that built-in corruption within the market allows for such unethical practices, which makes it impossible to truly level the playing field.
The bird’s eye view on this is as follows: pump-and-dump schemes akin to what we’ve seen are not news to experienced traders. They advise novice traders to be careful and stay away from highly volatile asset classes like penny stocks and alt coins. The same new traders who might not have experienced a bear market may find themselves unprepared as the market evens out or corrects to lower levels.
“Eventually, the forces helping to drive the stock market effortlessly higher will fade out for one reason or another - rising interest rates, rising oil prices, fear that the Federal Reserve may not be so supportive as vaccinations make the pandemic fade away, etc.,” warns Yastine.
Technology investing, in particular, is cyclical in nature.
“When the cycle turns, it can be devastating if your still holding shares of a stock that may still have a great product, but the shares have long since discounted that company’s rapid growth rate - and the rest of the investment community has moved on to companies with rapid growth but a lower stock valuation,” he adds.
As a result, it makes sense that aspiring traders should steer clear from squeezing shorts.
“The key is to buy the stocks early -- before they surge in price. Not after a big move,” confirms Sarhan.
Ippolito whittles the point down to its basics: “Every time you go into a trade, think about what you could lose. What would your maximum loss be and how much money can you afford to simply give away?”
As a trader gets acquainted with the market, utilizing fundamental and technical analysis correctly makes it easier to step away from a gambling mindset. In general, it’s important to stretch as the market adapts to new realities. Opinions differ as to whether the market truly changes as it adapts. Some presume the adjustments made to accommodate new conditions are made with the intention to revert back to preliminary conditions as new traders become less trigger-happy with their strategies and settle into long-term planning.
Yastine ties the two together: “The stock market is always changing, because people are always changing - boldly acting one moment, running and hiding in fear another.”
GME's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on June 01, 2023. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 156 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 156 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 08, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on GME as a result. In of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for GME just turned positive on May 08, 2023. Looking at past instances where GME's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
GME moved above its 50-day moving average on May 05, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for GME crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 16, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GME advanced for three days, in of 266 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The 10-day RSI Indicator for GME moved out of overbought territory on May 31, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 17 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
GME broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 22, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. GME’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.552) is normal, around the industry mean (20.145). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.657). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (2.449). GME has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.038). P/S Ratio (1.237) is also within normal values, averaging (69.641).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
a retaier of video game products and PC entertainment software
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GME has been loosely correlated with CHPT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 50% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if GME jumps, then CHPT could also see price increases.
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|BBY - GME|
|CPRT - GME|
|CVNA - GME|
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