Ryanair (RYAAY, $96.04) Lowers Profit Expectations -- Are Rivals Milking The Opportunity?
Ryanair is cutting its profit projections, as the European low-cost airline struggles with flight cancellations, fuel costs and staff strikes.
It announced profit forecast for the current fiscal year in the range of €1.1 billion ($1.27 billion) to €1.2 billion ($1.39 billion) – which is around €150 million ($174 million) lower than the company’s previous expectation. September saw several flight cancellations of the airline and therefore less traffic, which in turn seems to have spiraled into even less demand for its flights as customer apprehensions probably got aggravated. Spike in fuel costs further pressured margins for the company.
As for cabin crew strikes - something it's been facing since December 2017 - the airline has yet to settle disputes with union officials in countries such as Spain, Portugal, Germany and Belgium. But it has had managed to reach agreements with pilots in Ireland and Italy.
Probably adding to Ryanair’s woes is rival EasyJet’s claims on Friday that the latter is benefiting in some ways out of Ryanair’s problems. However, EastJet also expressed concerns about higher fuel costs and staff pay deals of its own.
RYAAY in downward trend: price may drop because broke its higher Bollinger Band on May 25, 2023
RYAAY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 25, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In of the 39 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for RYAAY moved out of overbought territory on May 18, 2023. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 33 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 33 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RYAAY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 05, 2023. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RYAAY as a result. In of 82 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RYAAY just turned positive on May 01, 2023. Looking at past instances where RYAAY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
RYAAY moved above its 50-day moving average on April 27, 2023 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where RYAAY advanced for three days, in of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 224 cases where RYAAY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. RYAAY’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.002) is normal, around the industry mean (78.755). P/E Ratio (17.212) is within average values for comparable stocks, (21.691). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (0.447). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.042) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.097) is also within normal values, averaging (1.017).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. RYAAY’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a holding company with interest in operating a low-fares airline
Industry Airlines
RYAAY and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, RYAAY has been closely correlated with DAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if RYAAY jumps, then DAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To RYAAY | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RYAAY | 100% | +1.25% | ||
| DAL - RYAAY | 74% Closely correlated | +0.14% | ||
| JBLU - RYAAY | 69% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| ALK - RYAAY | 69% Closely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| AAL - RYAAY | 68% Closely correlated | -0.54% | ||
| UAL - RYAAY | 67% Closely correlated | -0.12% | ||
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