Ryanair (RYAAY, $96.04) Lowers Profit Expectations -- Are Rivals Milking The Opportunity?
Ryanair is cutting its profit projections, as the European low-cost airline struggles with flight cancellations, fuel costs and staff strikes.
It announced profit forecast for the current fiscal year in the range of €1.1 billion ($1.27 billion) to €1.2 billion ($1.39 billion) – which is around €150 million ($174 million) lower than the company’s previous expectation. September saw several flight cancellations of the airline and therefore less traffic, which in turn seems to have spiraled into even less demand for its flights as customer apprehensions probably got aggravated. Spike in fuel costs further pressured margins for the company.
As for cabin crew strikes - something it's been facing since December 2017 - the airline has yet to settle disputes with union officials in countries such as Spain, Portugal, Germany and Belgium. But it has had managed to reach agreements with pilots in Ireland and Italy.
Probably adding to Ryanair’s woes is rival EasyJet’s claims on Friday that the latter is benefiting in some ways out of Ryanair’s problems. However, EastJet also expressed concerns about higher fuel costs and staff pay deals of its own.
Contributor
Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.
RYAAY in +4.37% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on September 22, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where RYAAY advanced for three days, in 231 of 326 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on RYAAY as a result. In 64 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for RYAAY just turned positive on September 17, 2026. Looking at past instances where RYAAY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
RYAAY moved above its 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 37 of 59 cases where RYAAY's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where RYAAY declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
RYAAY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for RYAAY entered a downward trend on September 24, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 4 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.648) is normal, around the industry mean (3.112). P/E Ratio (13.540) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.433). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (5.513) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.016) settles around the average of (0.010) among similar stocks. RYAAY's P/S Ratio (1.548) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (0.529).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. RYAAY’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
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General Information
a holding company with interest in operating a low-fares airline
Industry Airlines
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