S&P 500 (SPX, +0.93%) Hits 13-Month High, Climbing Over 20% From October
On Monday, the S&P 500 jumped to its highest level in 13 months, marking a significant surge in investor optimism. Traders are hoping that the Federal Reserve will refrain from hiking rates in the imminent policy decision due this Wednesday. This leap represents a momentous occasion for the market, signifying the end of the bear market and the beginning of a potential bull run.
Upcoming Tuesday's inflation data could further bolster the narrative of decreasing inflation rates. Economists predict that the consumer price index will show inflation dropping to a 4% annual rate in May, a noticeable decrease from the 4.9% in the previous month.
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This positive sentiment isn't limited to the S&P 500. Last week, the benchmark index reached a milestone by gaining more than 20% off its October low, prompting many investors to announce the end of the bear market. The Nasdaq Composite has seen even more substantial growth, up 33% from its 52-week low.
Leading the charge in Monday's surge were the Nasdaq and technology stocks, with giants like Amazon and Tesla each gaining more than 2%. This comes as the Nasdaq continues a seven-week winning streak.
This rally initiates a busy week for the US economy, with inflation data expected on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve's policy decision due on Wednesday afternoon. All three major indexes - the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average - ended Monday higher, with Nasdaq leading the gains with a 1.53% rise.
Historical data also provides a silver lining for investors. After the end of previous bear markets, stocks such as Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), and Tyler Technologies (TYL) consistently outperformed, each jumping an average of 30% or more in just 12 months.
After a grueling 162 trading days to overcome the last bear market, such historical trends provide much-needed relief for investors. Ryan Detrick, a strategist at Carson Group, points out that the S&P 500 gained 28.2% on average in the 12 months after rising 20% from bear market lows.
While the market's optimism is currently high, investors should keep a keen eye on the upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy decision. These factors could influence the trajectory of the market in the weeks and months to come.
Aroon Indicator for XLG shows an upward move is likely
XLG's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on May 30, 2025. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 440 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 440 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 25, 2025. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLG as a result. In of 73 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLG moved above its 50-day moving average on May 01, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XLG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 07, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLG advanced for three days, in of 357 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XLG moved out of overbought territory on May 21, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XLG turned negative on May 30, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XLG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 12, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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