S&P 500 (SPX, +0.93%) Hits 13-Month High, Climbing Over 20% From October
On Monday, the S&P 500 jumped to its highest level in 13 months, marking a significant surge in investor optimism. Traders are hoping that the Federal Reserve will refrain from hiking rates in the imminent policy decision due this Wednesday. This leap represents a momentous occasion for the market, signifying the end of the bear market and the beginning of a potential bull run.
Upcoming Tuesday's inflation data could further bolster the narrative of decreasing inflation rates. Economists predict that the consumer price index will show inflation dropping to a 4% annual rate in May, a noticeable decrease from the 4.9% in the previous month.
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This positive sentiment isn't limited to the S&P 500. Last week, the benchmark index reached a milestone by gaining more than 20% off its October low, prompting many investors to announce the end of the bear market. The Nasdaq Composite has seen even more substantial growth, up 33% from its 52-week low.
Leading the charge in Monday's surge were the Nasdaq and technology stocks, with giants like Amazon and Tesla each gaining more than 2%. This comes as the Nasdaq continues a seven-week winning streak.
This rally initiates a busy week for the US economy, with inflation data expected on Tuesday and the Federal Reserve's policy decision due on Wednesday afternoon. All three major indexes - the Nasdaq Composite, the S&P 500, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average - ended Monday higher, with Nasdaq leading the gains with a 1.53% rise.
Historical data also provides a silver lining for investors. After the end of previous bear markets, stocks such as Target (TGT), TJX (TJX), and Tyler Technologies (TYL) consistently outperformed, each jumping an average of 30% or more in just 12 months.
After a grueling 162 trading days to overcome the last bear market, such historical trends provide much-needed relief for investors. Ryan Detrick, a strategist at Carson Group, points out that the S&P 500 gained 28.2% on average in the 12 months after rising 20% from bear market lows.
While the market's optimism is currently high, investors should keep a keen eye on the upcoming inflation data and the Federal Reserve's policy decision. These factors could influence the trajectory of the market in the weeks and months to come.
XLG's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for XLG entered a downward trend on July 08, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 158 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 158 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
XLG moved below its 50-day moving average on June 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for XLG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on June 18, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XLG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where XLG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on July 08, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XLG as a result. In of 73 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XLG just turned positive on July 06, 2026. Looking at past instances where XLG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 54 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XLG advanced for three days, in of 362 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
XLG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
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