Sell in May and go away? SPY ($412.2)
Stock indexes remained mostly unchanged this week as Q1 earnings showed mixed results. However, bears believe that there are still numerous obstacles ahead for stock prices, including inflation, tighter credit conditions, high borrowing costs, and over-stretched consumer budgets. These concerns are coupled with fears of a US recession in the second half of the year. Our robots have also noted a significant level without significant changes. In case of a decline, we will open short positions and make profits from them.
Forward guidance issued by companies during their Q1 reports will likely have a big impact on investor sentiment and could lead to a revision of earnings forecasts. Bulls argue that many of the ongoing concerns have already been priced in, but the S&P 500 is still down more than -13% from its most recent record high.
The Fed's Beige Book yesterday revealed slower growth in several districts and declining bank lending volumes across consumer and business loans, as well as tightened lending standards. Many economists and Fed officials believe that tightening credit conditions could better slow the economy and bring inflation back to the Fed's target rate.
Data to watch includes Existing Home Sales and the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index. Earnings highlights include American Express, AT&T, Blackstone, CSX, D.R. Horton, Nokia, Nucor, PPG Industries, SnapOn, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Union Pacific. The overall tech sector will likely be supported if Taiwan Semiconductor reports good earnings.
The big tech sector's performance has a significant impact on the overall market. Therefore, it's tough to predict a market crash without seeing Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, Tesla, etc. rolling over and getting hit hard.
SPY in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on November 17, 2025
SPY moved below its 50-day moving average on November 17, 2025 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 34 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 06, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SPY as a result. In of 71 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPY turned negative on November 05, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 53 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 53 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for SPY's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 362 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SPY may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 463 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
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