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Vitalii Liubimov's Avatar
published in Blogs
Jan 05, 2021

Sell Ratings on Three Different European-Related ETFs Signals Potential Trouble Ahead

European markets have been rallying nicely over the last few months with a number of countries seeing sharp rallies off their October lows. Unfortunately the rallies have put a number of Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) in overbought territory on both their weekly and daily charts.

Three ETFs saw their daily stochastic indicators make bearish crossovers on December 31—the iShares MSCI Germany ETF (EWG), the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU), and the SPDR Euro Stoxx 50 ETF (FEX). Those same three ETFs all have “sell” ratings on the Tickeron Scorecard currently as well.

The EWU saw a recent surge when it was announced that there was a Brexit deal in place for England to leave the European Union. The unknown status had been hanging over the head of the British market for quite a while, so the idea that a last minute deal was reached was a relief for investors. Unfortunately it could mark a high point over the short term.

Looking at the FA screener, the EWU and the EWG both have one negative indicator and zero positive ones. The FEZ has one positive indicator and zero negative ones. Because these are ETFs, there are only a few fundamental indicators available. For the EWU the lone bearish signal is from its Outlook Rating and for the EWG it’s the Seasonality Score that is negative. The FEZ gets a positive reading from its Outlook Rating.

On the technical side, all the same indicators are available that we see with individual stocks. The EWG has three bullish signals on the technical side and two bearish signals. The FEZ and the EWU both have four bearish signals and two bullish signals from the technical indicators. There are two areas where all three receive bearish signals—the MACD indicator and the Bollinger Bands. Both the FEZ and the EWU receive bearish signals from their RSI indicators and the Momentum Indicators. All three funds were in overbought territory based on the daily stochastic indicators, but the EWU exited overbought territory on January 4.

Another item of concern for these three ETFs is their current sentiment, specifically the short interest ratios. All three have very low ratios at this time. In fact, the FEZ’s ratio is at 0.60 and that is the highest of the three. What this suggests is that investors are pretty bullish at this time and that could be a concern if we see bulls exiting their positions.

The comparison feature for Tickeron shows how these three ETFs stack up against one another and how they compare to other funds.

Related Ticker: EWG

EWG's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in overbought zone for 9 days

The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for EWG moved out of overbought territory on May 16, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 30 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 30 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where EWG declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

EWG broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 09, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on April 26, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on EWG as a result. In of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for EWG just turned positive on May 02, 2024. Looking at past instances where EWG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

EWG moved above its 50-day moving average on May 03, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for EWG crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 09, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where EWG advanced for three days, in of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 291 cases where EWG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Merck & Co (NYSE:MRK), Newmont Corp (NYSE:NEM).

Industry description

The investment seeks to track the investment results of the MSCI Germany Index. The fund generally will invest at least 80% of its assets in the component securities of its underlying index and in depositary receipts representing securities of the underlying index. The underlying index is designed to measure the performance of the large- and mid-capitalization segments of the German equity market. The fund is non-diversified.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the iShares MSCI Germany ETF ETF is 73.86B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 64.65K to 331.75B. MRK holds the highest valuation in this group at 331.75B. The lowest valued company is BAYN at 64.65K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the iShares MSCI Germany ETF ETF was 1%. For the same ETF, the average monthly price growth was 8%, and the average quarterly price growth was 16%. MTX experienced the highest price growth at 5%, while HEI experienced the biggest fall at 0%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the iShares MSCI Germany ETF ETF was 31%. For the same stocks of the ETF, the average monthly volume growth was 5% and the average quarterly volume growth was 15%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 42
P/E Growth Rating: 44
Price Growth Rating: 35
SMR Rating: 67
Profit Risk Rating: 48
Seasonality Score: 11 (-100 ... +100)
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EWGDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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