Shake Shack (SHAK, $67.10) gets "buy" rating at Loop Capital, on same-store sales outlook
Shake Shack's shares got a buy rating and a $78 share-price target at Loop Capital which initiated coverage on the stock.
Loop Capital analyst Lynne Collier mentioned that comparable-sales figures of the fast food restaurant chain have hit bottom and are turning around.
Shake Shack's same-store sales fell -49% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 24, amid the coronavirus crisis and civil-rights protests that affected the restaurants’ operating hours. The decline was “driven by a decline in traffic of 60.1% and an increase in price mix of 11.1%,” Shake Shack had said in a statement.
But according to Collier, Shake Shack has performed well in curbside and digital sales, which should lead to "outsized" sales comparison in the intermediate term.
Collier said that concerns about the company’s urban market during the pandemic when many people are moving to the suburbs have been priced into the stock.
Tickeron's analysis shows: SHAK's RSI Oscillator recovers from overbought zone
The 10-day RSI Oscillator for SHAK moved out of overbought territory on September 16, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 25 of the 34 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 74%.
Current price $67.09 crossed the resistance line at $69.20 and is trading between $69.20 resistance and $64.06 support lines. Throughout the month of 08/31/20 - 10/01/20, the price experienced a -5% Downtrend. During the week of 09/24/20 - 10/01/20, the stock fell -1%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 28, 2020. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SHAK as a result. In 52 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SHAK turned negative on September 17, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where Apple declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
SHAK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 27, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
SHAK moved above its 50-day Moving Average on August 12, 2020 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day Moving Average for SHAK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 18, 2020. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The 50-day Moving Average for SHAK moved above the 200-day moving average on September 14, 2020. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +4.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHAK advanced for three days, in 264 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 222 of 267 cases where SHAK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 57%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.31.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.88) is normal, around the industry mean (2.07). P/E Ratio (98.35) is within average values for comparable stocks, (66.07). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (11.41) is also within normal values, averaging (6.39). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (1.27) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.57) is also within normal values, averaging (1.96).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SHAK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SHAK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
Aroon Indicator for SHAK shows an upward move is likely
SHAK's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on December 04, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 215 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 215 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 67 cases where SHAK's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHAK advanced for three days, in of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
SHAK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SHAK moved out of overbought territory on December 09, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 38 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 38 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on December 13, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SHAK as a result. In of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SHAK turned negative on December 12, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 49 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHAK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SHAK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.390) is normal, around the industry mean (10.581). SHAK's P/E Ratio (649.000) is considerably higher than the industry average of (57.183). SHAK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.805). SHAK has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.039). P/S Ratio (4.730) is also within normal values, averaging (8.594).
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an operator of limited-service hamburger restaurants
Industry Restaurants