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Oct 02, 2020

Shake Shack (SHAK, $67.10) gets "buy" rating at Loop Capital, on same-store sales outlook

Shake Shack's shares got a buy rating and a $78 share-price target at Loop Capital which initiated coverage on the stock.

Loop Capital analyst Lynne Collier mentioned that  comparable-sales figures of the fast food restaurant chain have hit bottom and are turning around.

Shake Shack's same-store sales fell -49% year-over-year in the quarter ended June 24, amid the coronavirus crisis and civil-rights protests that affected the restaurants’ operating hours. The decline was “driven by a decline in traffic of 60.1% and an increase in price mix of 11.1%,” Shake Shack had said in a statement. 

But according to Collier, Shake Shack has performed well in curbside and digital sales, which should lead to "outsized" sales comparison in the intermediate term.

Collier said that concerns about the company’s urban market during the pandemic when many people are moving  to the suburbs have been priced into the stock.

Tickeron's analysis shows: SHAK's RSI Oscillator recovers from overbought zone

The 10-day RSI Oscillator for SHAK moved out of overbought territory on September 16, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. Traders may want to look at selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 34 instances where the indicator moved out of the overbought zone. In 25 of the 34 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move down at 74%.

Current price $67.09 crossed the resistance line at $69.20 and is trading between $69.20 resistance and $64.06 support lines. Throughout the month of 08/31/20 - 10/01/20, the price experienced a -5% Downtrend. During the week of 09/24/20 - 10/01/20, the stock fell -1%.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 28, 2020. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on SHAK as a result. In 52 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SHAK turned negative on September 17, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 31 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where Apple declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.

SHAK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on August 27, 2020. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 6 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.

SHAK moved above its 50-day Moving Average on August 12, 2020 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day Moving Average for SHAK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on August 18, 2020. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.

The 50-day Moving Average for SHAK moved above the 200-day moving average on September 14, 2020. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a +4.18% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHAK advanced for three days, in 264 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 222 of 267 cases where SHAK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 83%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 57%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1 to 1.31.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 95 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.88) is normal, around the industry mean (2.07). P/E Ratio (98.35) is within average values for comparable stocks, (66.07). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (11.41) is also within normal values, averaging (6.39). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (1.27) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.57) is also within normal values, averaging (1.96).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SHAK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 44 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SHAK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

Related Ticker: SHAK

SHAK sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average

The 50-day moving average for SHAK moved above the 200-day moving average on January 19, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on January 24, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on SHAK as a result. In of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SHAK just turned positive on January 25, 2024. Looking at past instances where SHAK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SHAK advanced for three days, in of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 240 cases where SHAK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SHAK declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

SHAK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on February 15, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SHAK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (8.734) is normal, around the industry mean (7.279). P/E Ratio (208.596) is within average values for comparable stocks, (177.806). SHAK's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is very low in comparison to the industry average of (1.903). SHAK has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.032). P/S Ratio (3.957) is also within normal values, averaging (2.438).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), Yum China Holdings (NYSE:YUMC), Domino's Pizza (NYSE:DPZ), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Noodles & Company (NASDAQ:NDLS).

Industry description

The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald's Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Restaurants Industry is 7.45B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 6.73K to 214.99B. MCD holds the highest valuation in this group at 214.99B. The lowest valued company is AMHG at 6.73K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was -1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 1%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1%. DPUKY experienced the highest price growth at 10%, while REBN experienced the biggest fall at -22%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was -56%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -49% and the average quarterly volume growth was -37%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 46
P/E Growth Rating: 63
Price Growth Rating: 49
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 81
Seasonality Score: -48 (-100 ... +100)
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SHAKDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

an operator of limited-service hamburger restaurants

Industry Restaurants

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Restaurants
Address
225 Varick Street
Phone
+1 646 747-7200
Employees
7429
Web
https://www.shakeshack.com
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SHAK and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, SHAK has been loosely correlated with FRSH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 57% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if SHAK jumps, then FRSH could also see price increases.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To SHAK
1D Price
Change %
SHAK100%
+1.05%
FRSH - SHAK
57%
Loosely correlated
+0.55%
CAKE - SHAK
46%
Loosely correlated
+1.47%
SG - SHAK
43%
Loosely correlated
+0.70%
JACK - SHAK
41%
Loosely correlated
+0.71%
DENN - SHAK
40%
Loosely correlated
+0.66%
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