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Jul 19, 2018
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Shares in Papa John's Jump on Wendy's Rumors

Shares in Papa John's Jump on Wendy's Rumors

Papa John's has been front and center in the news lately, but mostly for the wrong reasons. Stories have cited a toxic work culture and the use of a racial slur by founder and (now former) chairman John Schnatter. Mr. Schnatter has now been removed from the company amid other scandals potentially ranging from spying on employees to sexual harassment, though he still owns 29% of shares.

But the news that moved shares on Wall Street had nothing to do with Papa John's current PR nightmare -- it had to do with a potential merger or acquisition of the Wendy's fast food chain. The deal, if it went through, would mean upgrading Papa John's technology and hoping to scale up the pizza chain. Shares jumped some 4% on the day of the rumors. 

Related Ticker: PZZA

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


Momentum Indicator for PZZA turns negative, indicating new downward trend

PZZA saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 12, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 79 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 67 of the 79 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 85%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PZZA declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.

The Aroon Indicator for PZZA entered a downward trend on October 30, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where PZZA's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 37 of 51 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.

The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 65 cases where PZZA's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.

Following a +4.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PZZA advanced for three days, in 175 of 272 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.

PZZA may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 37 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-1.341) is normal, around the industry mean (-0.451). P/E Ratio (23.069) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.442). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.304) is also within normal values, averaging (7.754). Dividend Yield (0.100) settles around the average of (0.048) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.339) is also within normal values, averaging (2.618).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. PZZA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. PZZA’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 84, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are McDonald's Corp (NYSE:MCD), Starbucks Corp (NASDAQ:SBUX), Yum! Brands (NYSE:YUM), Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE:CMG), Darden Restaurants (NYSE:DRI), Yum China Holdings (NYSE:YUMC), Dominos Pizza Inc (NASDAQ:DPZ), Shake Shack (NYSE:SHAK), Noodles & Co (NASDAQ:NDLS).

Industry description

The industry includes companies that operate full-service restaurants, fast food restaurants, cafeterias and snack bars. McDonald`s Corporation, Starbucks Corporation, YUM! Brands, Inc. and Restaurant Brands International Inc. are some of the largest U.S. restaurant-owning companies in terms of market capitalization. While restaurant spending could be viewed as discretionary for consumers, some companies in the business have been able to weather economic cycles by establishing strong loyalty among customers over the years. Many of them also have a strong global presence as well.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Restaurants Industry is 9.96B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 1.6K to 182.66B. MCD holds the highest valuation in this group at 182.66B. The lowest valued company is HLTY at 1.6K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was 7%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 8%, and the average quarterly price growth was 6%. NDLS experienced the highest price growth at 33%, while ARCO experienced the biggest fall at -17%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Restaurants Industry was 27%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 18% and the average quarterly volume growth was 3%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 49
P/E Growth Rating: 47
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 68
Profit Risk Rating: 84
Seasonality Score: 17 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

an operator of pizza delivery and restaurants

Industry Restaurants

Industry
Restaurants
Address
2002 Papa John's Boulevard
Phone
+1 502 261-7272
Employees
9400
Web
https://www.papajohns.com
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