Shifting Patterns In Crude Oil Markets Could Impact Prices
For the first time in six years, South Korea did not import any oil from Iran during the month of September -- move ahead of the impending U.S. sanctions. Uncertainty pertaining to getting waiver from the U.S. government is believed to have triggered this decision.
South Korea, the world’s fifth-largest crude oil importer and an important client for Iran’s oil (alongside China and India), has steadily declined its share of Iranian oil imports since the beginning of the year. For the first nine months of 2018, ending in September, total imports stood at 7.15 million tonnes – down by 49.1% compared to 2017 despite being less expensive.
Meanwhile, the share of U.S. crude oil exports to South Korea increased five times to 668,704 tonnes in the reported month, while imports of Saudi crude saw a decline of 6.9% to 3.41 million tonnes from 3.67 million tonnes a year earlier.
As political tensions escalate between the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, and as U.S. sanctions against Iran take hold, crude oil prices will be a key economic factor to watch.
CVX in downward trend: 10-day moving average broke below 50-day moving average on May 08, 2023
The 10-day moving average for CVX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on May 08, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 25, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CVX as a result. In of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
CVX moved below its 50-day moving average on May 02, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for CVX moved below the 200-day moving average on April 25, 2023. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CVX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for CVX entered a downward trend on May 26, 2023. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CVX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 54 cases where CVX's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CVX just turned positive on May 24, 2023. Looking at past instances where CVX's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CVX advanced for three days, in of 340 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
CVX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 83, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CVX's P/B Ratio (1.831) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.047). P/E Ratio (8.319) is within average values for comparable stocks, (15.050). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.411) is also within normal values, averaging (4.136). Dividend Yield (0.038) settles around the average of (0.103) among similar stocks. CVX's P/S Ratio (1.280) is slightly higher than the industry average of (0.582).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CVX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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