Sin Stocks Can’t Seem to Break Out of Downward Trends
You may have heard the term “sin stock” at some point over the years, but do you really know which companies are considered sin stocks? Traditionally the term is applied to companies that operate in industries such as alcohol, tobacco, and gambling. There is a long-held belief that these stocks tend to do well no matter what the economy is doing. The reasoning behind that belief is based on how demand for the products is pretty consistent and may even increase during stressful economic times.
While browsing through charts recently I found two sin stocks that can’t seem to break out of the downward trends they have been in for the last four years or so. Altria (MO) and Molson Coors Brewing (TAP) have both seen their stocks trend lower in recent years, but the companies have decent fundamental indicators.
If we look at the weekly chart for Altria we see that the stock has been trending lower since the second quarter of 2017 and from its peak through its low, the stock lost over half of its value. There is also a trend channel that has formed that defines the cycles within the overall downward trend.
Looking at the weekly chart for Molson Coors, we see that the stock peaked just above $100 back in the fourth quarter of 2016. Just last month the stock was trading below $33. We also see a downwardly sloped trend channel forming for the brewer. One difference between the charts is that Molson Coors is in overbought territory based on the 10-week RSI and the weekly stochastic indicators.
Given the downward trends the stocks have been in, you might think the two would rate very poorly when it comes to the fundamentals. But that isn’t the case at all. Tickeron’s fundamental screener shows that Altria does really well with five positive readings and only one negative reading. Molson Coors shows two positive ratings and two negative with three neutral readings.
Both companies get positive readings from the Valuation Rating and from the Seasonality Score. Both companies also get negative ratings in the Profit vs. Risk category—both scoring a 100, the worst possible score. Altria gets additional positive readings in the Outlook Rating, SMR Rating, and P/E Growth Rating. The P/E Growth Rating for Molson Coors is the other bearish reading.
The full analysis from Tickeron shows how the stocks stack up against one another as well as how they compare to other stocks in general.
MO in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on October 21, 2024
MO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In of 29 cases where MO's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where MO's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, of 26 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 53 cases where MO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MO advanced for three days, in of 365 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 23, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MO as a result. In of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
MO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 02, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 04, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator for MO entered a downward trend on October 23, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: MO's P/B Ratio (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (3.027). P/E Ratio (8.800) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.369). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (4.079) is also within normal values, averaging (15.195). Dividend Yield (0.078) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.411) is also within normal values, averaging (8.286).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 73, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
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Fundamental Analysis Ratings
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General Information
a holding company which produces and markets tobacco products
Industry Tobacco