Splunk (SPLK, $214.89) reports Q2 loss, misses revenue estimate

Splunk reported a second-quarter loss of -$261.3 million, or -$1.64 a share, wider than the year-ago quarter’s loss of -$100.9 million, or -67 cents a share.

The adjusted loss of - 33 cents a share, was in line with FactSet's forecast.

Revenue of $491.7 million, fell short of the $520.4 million expected by analysts polled by Factset. It was also lower than the year-ago quarter’s $516.6 million.

Looking ahead, the software company expects third-quarter revenue to range between $600 million and $630 million, which is below analysts’ forecast of $641.5 million.

According to Tickeron, SPLK's in Uptrend: Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) Histogram crosses above signal line

This is a Bullish indicator signaling SPLK's price could rise. Traders may explore going long on the ticker or buying call options. In 41 of 47 cases where SPLK's MACD histogram became positive, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 87%.

Current price $215.55 is above $196.80 the highest support line found by A.I. Throughout the month of 07/27/20 - 08/26/20, the price experienced a +7% Uptrend. During the week of 08/19/20 - 08/26/20, the stock enjoyed a +11% Uptrend growth.

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator exceeded the 0 level on August 21, 2020. Traders may consider buying the ticker or exploring call options. In 69 of 82 cases where the ticker's Momentum Indicator exceeded 0, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 84%.

The price moved above its 50-day Moving Average, which indicates a change from a Downtrend to an Uptrend. In 35 of 47 similar backtested cases where SPLK's price crossed above its 50-day Moving Average, its price rose further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 74%.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPLK advanced for three days, in 259 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 229 of 316 similar cases where SPLK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the ticker has entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The Stochastic Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

The 10-day Moving Average for this ticker crossed below its 50-day Moving Average on August 19, 2020. This can be construed as a sell signal, indicating that the trend is shifting lower. In 11 of 19 cases where SPLK's 10-day Moving Average crossed below its 50-day Moving Average, its price fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 58%.

The higher Bollinger Band was broken -- a price fall is expected as the ticker heads toward the middle band, which invites the trader to consider selling or shorting the ticker, or exploring put options. In 27 of 41 cases where SPLK's price broke its higher Bollinger Band, its price dropped further during the following month. The odds of a continued Downtrend are 66%.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Tickeron has a negative outlook on this ticker and predicts a further decline by more than 4.00% within the next month with a likelihood of 67%. During the last month, the daily ratio of advancing to declining volumes was 1.22 to 1.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 69, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. SPLK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (19.02) is normal, around the industry mean (6.79). P/E Ratio (0.00) is within average values for comparable stocks, (92.02). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.00) is also within normal values, averaging (5.95). Dividend Yield (0.00) settles around the average of (0.34) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (9.34) is also within normal values, averaging (7.01).

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 82 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk|Expert

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.