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published in Blogs
Mar 14, 2019

Splunk (SPLK) bounces off lower rail of channel and its 50-day

Software firm Splunk Inc. (Nasdaq: SPLK) has rallied sharply after hitting a low in November. The stock dropped to $89.55 on November 21 before rallying all the way up to $143.70 on March 1. The stock fell over the last couple of weeks, but appears to have found a couple of layers of support.

The stock has formed a trend channel over the last four months and the lower rail is in the $120 area. The 50-day moving average is just above that at $123.23. These two levels seem to have given the stock the support it needed to reverse the downward trend. It hit the lower rail on Friday before rallying back to close right on the 50-day. It rallied again on Monday and looks like it could rally even more in the coming weeks.

The daily stochastic readings had reached oversold territory and the 10-day RSI was close. The stochastic readings made a bullish crossover on March 11 and the RSI had reversed as well.

In addition to the stochastics crossover and the dual layers of support, the Tickeron AI Trend Prediction tool generated a bullish signal on March 8. The prediction calls for a rally of at least 4% in the coming month and it came with a confidence level of 88%. Previous predictions on Splunk have been accurate 75% of the time.

Splunk’s fundamentals are very impressive. The company has seen average annual earnings growth of 110% over the last three years while sales have grown at a rate of 38% per year. The company saw earnings grow by 41% in its most recent quarterly report while sales were up by 35%.

Related Ticker: SPLK

SPLK in +0.10% Uptrend, growing for three consecutive days on March 13, 2024

Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where SPLK advanced for three days, in of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 258 cases where SPLK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for SPLK turned negative on March 07, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. SPLK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. SPLK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (35.714) is normal, around the industry mean (28.904). P/E Ratio (103.224) is within average values for comparable stocks, (147.473). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.808) is also within normal values, averaging (2.802). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.085) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.527) is also within normal values, averaging (77.764).

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT), Oracle Corp (NYSE:ORCL), Salesforce (NYSE:CRM), Adobe (NASDAQ:ADBE), Intuit (NASDAQ:INTU), Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER), SERVICENOW (NYSE:NOW), Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), CrowdStrike Holdings (NASDAQ:CRWD).

Industry description

Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Packaged Software Industry is 10.56B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 291 to 3.19T. MSFT holds the highest valuation in this group at 3.19T. The lowest valued company is BLGI at 291.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was 1%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 11%. NYWKD experienced the highest price growth at 441%, while ETAO experienced the biggest fall at -91%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Packaged Software Industry was -66%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -51% and the average quarterly volume growth was -38%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 52
P/E Growth Rating: 77
Price Growth Rating: 50
SMR Rating: 83
Profit Risk Rating: 88
Seasonality Score: 3 (-100 ... +100)
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SPLKDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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General Information

a provider of information technology services

Industry PackagedSoftware

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Information Technology Services
Address
270 Brannan Street
Phone
+1 415 848-8400
Employees
8000
Web
https://www.splunk.com
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